Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com
What would your Top 10 in the system look like after the draft? – Steve
Assuming all the main guys sign, and keeping in mind that I reserve the right to change this later:
1) Yasmani Grandal
2) Rymer Liriano
3) Keyvius Sampson
4) Joe Ross
5) Austin Hedges
6) Robbie Erlin
7) Max Fried
8) Casey Kelly
9) Jedd Gyorko
10) Cory Spangenberg
Joe Wieland and Yonder Alonso were not considered.
Wow, that was way tougher than I expected. I feel like there’s little argument with the first two, but if you told me you thought Ross, Hedges, Gyorko or even Kelly was number three I wouldn’t think you’re crazy. The system is crazy deep and talented.
What is it about Ross that caused you to rank him behind Fried in a draft-night tweet? – Eric
Interestingly enough these pitches are surprisingly similar. Both feature fastballs with great life, changeups that they can use effectively to both left-handed and right-handed batters, and advanced curveballs that show good shape and consistency.
Although you’d typically give the advantage to a lefty when comparing similar pitchers, Ross gets the nod here due to his impressive fastball velocity. He’ll typically work 92-95 where as Fried will sit in the 89-92 range.
Can you give a quick scouting report on the top three pitchers the Padres took? – Stephanie
Rather than rehashing site content I’ll just point you to the scouting report of Max Fried and the scouting reports for Zach Eflin and Walker Weickel.
What did you think of the Padres’ draft overall? – Jack
Obviously it’s way too soon to have a definitive opinion on any of the players, but I do think Padres fans should be encouraged by the approach that Chad MacDonald, Jaron Madison and Co continue to take. It’s an overall blend of upside and signability which the front office hopes will lead to more signed picks and more talent in the organization.
How would you compare this draft class to last years? – Rick
While the Padres did some great things in the draft, there isn’t much of a comparison here. The 2011 draft is considered one of the most impressive classes in draft history with its combination of star power and depth. Still, due to injuries and millions of other unpredictable factors you just never know how a class has turned out until four to five years down the road.
I was curious how the sorting process works; who is assigned to Eugene, who goes to extended spring training, and who might make the jump to Ft. Wayne? Also, is this time frame an opportunity for the front office to send struggling players at Ft. Wayne down? – Shane
Just a quick clarification: Extended Spring Training ended this last week. Short season leagues are starting next week so players will be assigned to one of those affiliates.
It’s a mix of feel from Randy Smith and his team and overall organizational depth. For instance, they may believe Travis Jankowski can hold his own in Lake Elsinore right now, but does he deserve playing time over one of Everett Williams, Rymer Liriano, Rico Noel or Luis Domoromo? Those are four guys that have shown production and climbed their way up the organization.
One thing that will be interesting to see is how much Fried, Eflin and Weickel will pitch this year assuming they sign. Fried has had a really long year and may just get a quick taste of professional baseball (a la Ross’ quick appearance in 2011 to get his feet wet). Eflin was injured for a good chunk of the season, but does that mean he has a fresh arm or that the Padres would rather be cautious with him and focus more on adding strength in bullpens. Weickel pitched all season long, but the organization may want to focus on sharpening his arsenal before starting his career rather than just letting him run out against better competition.
Most of the guys who may not have been ready for Fort Wayne we’ve already seen shipped up and down. Corey Adamson, Kyung-Min Na, Alberth Martinez and Mykal Stokes will all likely continue to float around.
How many players on average do teams pick up after the draft? – Jeremy
It really depends on how many draft picks sign and total injuries throughout the organization. The draft this year was shortened to 40 rounds, which probably means we’ll see more NDFAs than usual.
Did the Padres take anybody interesting after the first few rounds? – Oscar
Fernando Perez was a third rounder, but I think he’s worth mentioning here. Although he was drafted out of Junior College Perez is the same age as most high school seniors. He isn’t a shortstop, but Perez may be able to hit enough to stick as an everyday third baseman.
Roman Madrid is an interesting name in the Kevin Quackenbush mold of a college reliever who could dominate inexperienced hitters and move fast. Madrid’s game revolves around throwing strikes with a fastball-slider combination that should allow him to be a late-inning reliever in the minors.
Andrew Sopko didn’t have a high school team but has shown a decent feel for pitching for his experience level. His three-pitch arsenal is all projection at this point but he’d be an interesting guy if the Padres can ink him to a deal.
Kevin McCanna is an extremely polished high school pitcher with a fastball, slider and changeup arsenal that could start in the low minors now. McCanna has a limited ceiling, which may preclude the Padres from meeting his perceived bonus demands.
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If I set the over/under at 2.5 on the number of players from this Top 10 list that you think will have an MLB season with > 3 WAR, do you take the over or under?
(see here for an example of WAR … http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0)
I’m worried we’re not being realistic enough about the value of “prospects” … it’s good to have good ones, and these guys appear to be good prospects … but none of them appear to be great prospects … they are rare, indeed.
Just one >3 WAR season? I’d take the over. There are enough guys on the list that are close to the majors and safe bets.
Actually, I forgot my most important comment … THANKS for this blog and for this post! More, more more! :-)
Thanks!
If the Padres do get all of their top picks signed from this years draft, I would assume names like: Portillo, Peterson, Eflin, Weickel, Jankowski, Garces, Rincon, Noel, Roach and Phillips would slide in somewhere in the 11-20 range of Padres prospects. Reading those names, you could make an argument that their 11-20 list is better than some teams top 10′s couldn’t you?
Plus you would have to assume that both Quentin and Street will be dealt at the deadline, even though there is talk to the otherwise, but it will be interesting what Byrnes can get from a desperate GM needing a bat and a late inning arm. This system is going to be over following with prospect sby the end of the year, even with all of the promotions.
Definitely agree with a lot of what you said.
I may be succumbing to yet another small-sample-size induced euphoria … but it sure does look like Yasmani is the real deal! Well done on see that … and trying to tell me/us :-)
The whole system seems to have perked up … San Antonio on a 10-game winning streak!
And I’m pretty hopeful for Gyorko … seems like we should see him up soon …
Grandal has been off to a fantastic start, just wish he’d walk a bit more. You’re right, LE really got hot at the end of the first half and even the Tincaps have played really well at times. Many of the affiliates have very young rosters so it’s good to see them winning.