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Padres Prospect Mailbag: 2012 MLB Draft Edition

Posted by Jeff in Mailbag | MLB Draft - (8 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

What would your Top 10 in the system look like after the draft? – Steve

Assuming all the main guys sign, and keeping in mind that I reserve the right to change this later:

1)    Yasmani Grandal
2)    Rymer Liriano
3)    Keyvius Sampson
4)    Joe Ross
5)    Austin Hedges
6)    Robbie Erlin
7)    Max Fried
8)    Casey Kelly
9)    Jedd Gyorko
10) Cory Spangenberg Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: 2012 MLB Draft Edition” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: 2012 Spring Training Part 1

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (1 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag that will be posted later in Spring Training, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Do the Padres really expect the hit tool to develop with Austin Hedges?  3MIL even for a Gold Glove-type catcher seems a little excessive given concerns about his hitting – Gabe

In short, yes.  Hedges is a great example of a player in the draft who caused many teams to have differing opinions.  While there was absolutely no one denying his defensive prowess, the combination of Hedges’ high school team almost never holding batting practice sessions that were open to scouts and media members and opponents constantly pitching around him led to few teams having much experience watching Hedges’ bat in action.

Luckily for the Padres, Jaron Madison and his team were able to get more good looks of Hedges than just about any other team in the league.  Like with any player there’s no guarantee that Hedges will mature and progress to the point of reaching the majors, but you can be sure that no team in the league – not just the budget-minded Padres – would be willing to spend $3 million on a player they didn’t feel had a great chance of turning into a star.

It’s also important to remember just how low the hitting bar is at catcher in modern-day baseball.  Outside of 2010, MLB catchers have produced the worst offensive output of any position in baseball every year since 2000.  The Padres don’t need Hedges to post an .800 OPS to be a star with his defensive tools.  Though should he get to that point – which a few key people in the organization believe he can – you’re looking at a perennial All Star.

There’s been a lot of talk about breakout players for 2012, but who do you think is going to slide a bit on lists? – Angel Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: 2012 Spring Training Part 1” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: January

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

What can we expect from Kyle Blanks moving forward? Has he reached his ceiling? – Chelsea

While I’m not 100% sure what Blanks’ future holds I think it’s safe to say that he hasn’t reached his ceiling.  Blanks showed throughout his time in the minors that, if nothing else, he would offer an above average power stroke and the ability to get on base.  But, what we’ve seen over three injury-riddled seasons is a player who has struggled to translate offensively while providing more than expected defensively:

Year G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 54 172 148 24 37 9 0 10 22 1 1 18 55 .250 .355 .514 .868
2010 33 120 102 14 16 6 1 3 15 1 0 15 46 .157 .283 .324 .607
2011 55 190 170 21 39 7 1 7 26 2 0 16 51 .229 .300 .406 .706

The Padres have made it completely clear that they have all but cooled on Blanks with the acquisition of Carlos Quentin and the further diminishment of Blanks’ role with the club – not to mention Yonder Alonso and Jesus Guzman likely taking just about every at bat this season at first base.

2012 likely means a return to Tucson for Blanks where he will take over Anthony Rizzo’s vacated roster spot and hope for an opportunity with the big club or trade to a less crowded situation.  In a neutral environment it’s not out of the question to think that Blanks could post a .250/.350/.475 line while playing solid defense in either left field or at first base where that line would be far less valuable.

I’m not going to ask for your top 10, because the system is so deep.  What does your top 15 prospect look like after the Latos trade? – Dustin Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: January” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: December

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

The Rays just locked up Matt Moore.  When are the Padres going to do this with one of their young players and show the fans that they are serious about winning? – Steve

There are two things to consider here: 1) both Moore and the Rays are taking on a significant amount of risk in this move 2) the Padres lack the type of talent that you would consider giving this type of contract.

To the first point – Yes, this deal (much like the one given to Evan Longoria) looks fantastic on paper.  The Rays just assured themselves what many pundits believe to be a premier, front-of-the-rotation starter through his age-30 season for a maximum cost of $40 million.  To make this deal even sweeter for the club if Moore blows out his arm in his first start of 2012 they have only guaranteed him $14 million!  But even $14 million for a club like the Rays that operates on razor thin margins is a significant commitment considering the attrition rate of young pitchers.

For Moore, his risk is tied to the fact that he may just live up to expectations meaning that he will lose out on tens of million of dollars in potential earnings through arbitration and his first few years of free agency.  On the other hand, as mentioned above he could suffer a career ending injury next season but still have a nice $14 million cushion to help out him and his family.

To the second point – When teams begin discussing offering contracts to players with less than two years of service time the first question that is asked is: “What do we believe this player will become?”

While the Padres currently have one of the top farm systems in the league, they simply lack the elite level talent – top three to five in all of baseball – that you’d consider guaranteeing more the five years to before seeing any sort of production.

What do you make of this whole Drew Cumberland situation? – Tim Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: December” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: October

Posted by Jeff in Mailbag - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Why is Jason Hagerty barely playing in the Arizona Fall League? Are the Padres in charge of his playing time or does the team’s manager decide it? – Kevin

Hagerty is in an odd position as a Taxi Player in the AFL. This simply means that he is only eligible to play on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Mostly this is a roster spot filled with pitchers who are only in Arizona for light amounts of work and position players who are either under-developed for the competition level or just there as a warm body.

While he has definitely been struggling – .200/.273/.267 – Hagerty is at the end of a very long season that saw the first real level jump of his career.  His sparse playing time has been most evident on defense where Hagerty has three throwing errors in six games.

Outside of Taxi Squad players playing time is divided up fairly evenly with top performers like Jedd Gyorko getting the nod over struggling players to make the game more appealing to the few fans in attendance.  The Padres and other organizations give the players certain things to work on while in Arizona but don’t necessarily have a direct say in playing time unless they explicitly express their preferences to the coaching staff – likely taking place behind the scenes.  Things like pitch counts are heavily monitored by the player’s parent organization.

What are your thoughts on Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod skipping town? – Tim Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: October” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: September

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Why is everybody so down on Fuentes?  He has identical numbers to last year, all be it at a higher level, when he was a key piece of the Gonzalez trade.  If he can continue to put up similar numbers in the minors and then into the Majors, he will be a prototypical player for Petco, which is what Hoyer has been looking for.  It was the kid’s first season in a new organization with a different teaching style I’m sure.  Everyone else can write this kid off, but if puts up these same numbers next year in AA I’ll be happy. – Dustin

For reference, here is Fuentes’ slash line the last two seasons:
2010 – .270/.328/.377
2011 – .275/.342/.369

The main problem here is that Fuentes went from a league that plays fairly neutral in the Sally League to the second most hitter-friendly environment in professional baseball in the California League.  The Cal League is known to inflate offensive numbers by as much as 10-15%, meaning that you really have to shave off some of Fuentes’ production to see his true performance this season.

Like I said in the August Mailbag, I still think Fuentes has the physical tools and baseball ability to be a major leaguer, but he showed inconsistent effort throughout the season leading to many question marks surrounding his game.

If Fuentes is going to bounce back in the Texas League next year – assuming he gets promoted – he is going to have to start hitting more line drives and show that he is able to make more contact in general.

I was wondering if you could give your opinion on Ross and Kelly’s high school scouting report versus Whitson’s high school report.  Specifically, where would Ross and Kelly be drafted if they were eligible for the 2010 draft? – Chris

Here are the most basic versions of scouting reports for the three pitchers:

Karsten Whitson – 3 pitches (fastball, slider and changeup) that grade out currently at solid average
Joe Ross – 2 pitches (fastball and curveball) that currently grade out at average to plus with a very under-developed changeup
Michael Kelly – 1 pitch (fastball) that grades out as solid average and a curveball that is currently a below average offering

While I think the Padres received great value with their picks this year, Ross and Kelly would both have slotted well back of Whitson if all three players were in the same draft.

If you want an overall ranking of the top high school pitchers available the last two years: Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: September” »

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Padres Prospet Mailbag: August Part 2

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (4 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 1 of the Mailbag.

Is Reymond Fuentes still a legit prospect? – Jonathan

Definitely.  While Fuentes’ stock has definitely slipped, he still is loaded with enough tools to be an everyday center fielder on a contending team.  It is becoming more apparent that the bat will never be anything special, but his speed definitely plays in games and – outside of this year – he has shown the ability to make consistent contact.

Unless you see a serious regression in tools, one year of production is not enough to condemn a player.  That being said, Fuentes has a lot to prove as questions surrounding his effort are growing louder and louder.

What level will Joe Ross, Michael Kelly and Austin Hedges start at next season? – Antonio

Too early to definitively say at this point.  Ross has enough stuff to compete in the Midwest League, but the Padres may elect to tinker with his delivery in the Instructional League which may have him set to begin the season in Arizona or Eugene.  Gut says they challenge him in Fort Wayne barring unforeseen circumstances.

Kelly is much more of a project at this point with only one real pitch in his repertoire.  The conservative play would be to start him in Arizona and promote Kelly if his performance validated, but at the moment I’ll say that he begins the year in Eugene with the Emeralds.

While 20 at bats with the AZL Padres is not a ton of experience, Hedges has at least shown that his bat isn’t completely overmatched by professional pitchers.  I’d expect to see him in Fort Wayne to start 2012 barring an underwhelming spring that would send him to Eugene. Continue reading “Padres Prospet Mailbag: August Part 2” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: August Part 1

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (3 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 2 of the Mailbag.

Where has Edinson Rincon been? – John

Rincon was struck by a pitch on June 25 that knocked him out of action until August 25.  He is currently rehabbing with the Padres’ Arizona League affiliate and may be a candidate for the Arizona Fall League if the Padres are concerned about getting him extra at bats before re-evaluating him in Spring Training.

It is important to remember that we may not see the normal Rincon for quite some time.  The injury he suffered – a broken Hamate bone – is known to sap a batters power severely and full recovery time for their true ability to return can be 12-18 months.  Scouts and talent evaluators love the potential that Rincon brings on offense.  He has a fluid swing that is aided by his strong wrists.  Just be prepared to possibly see a lighter-hitting Rincon than in the past.

Any thoughts on what players the Padres will send to the Arizona Fall League? – Ryan

As I mentioned above, I do believe that Rincon is a strong candidate for the AFL.

Others who could potentially make an appearance:

Simon Castro – he appeared to be on the cusp of a call up heading into the season but has experienced serious regression in his secondary offerings.  With just over 100 innings pitched on the season he has more than enough bullets left in his arm this year to pitch through the winter.

Jason Hagerty – he lacks much experience against upper-level competition so the AFL would be a great challenge for him.

Cody Decker – he missed almost three months of live action.  Now that his ankle is fully healed the Padres would like to get him as much experience as possible so that his promotion path is not delayed.  Still, even with some AFL experience another year in San Antonio is not out of the question for the undersized first baseman.

Jaff Decker – he has already surpassed his career-high in games, but with his struggles in adjusting to a new stance the Peoria native may be asked to play some extra baseball over the offseason.

Like every other team the Padres will send six players, two of which can be from lower than Double-A if the team so chooses. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: August Part 1” »

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