What to Love:  We’ll start this series with one of the biggest high school pitching prospects in this year’s draft: Lucas Giolito.  This Southern California native combines a great frame and a fluid delivery with some of the best stuff in the draft class, including a fastball that has touched 100 MPH, a strong power curve and a changeup that has shown potential.  At 6’6 220 lbs, Giolito will be able to add some weight to his somewhat wiry frame, which should allow him to add velocity to his already impressive arsenal.  Giolito has also been able to leverage his size and his over-the-top delivery to create tremendous downhill plane on his pitches, leaving scouts seeing plenty of strikeouts and groundballs in his future.  Needless to say, this right-hander has seemingly limitless potential.

What to Loath:  There has only been one wart on Giolito’s scouting report, and it’s a big one: injury risk.  After some monster early showcase performances (including one at the 2011 Area Code games, where the exclusive video below was filmed), Giolito went down with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament and did not throw another pitch during the remainder of the high school season.  While no surgery will be required in his recovery, any potential damage to the UCL in a pitcher’s throwing elbow will understandably be cause for serious concern.  With a commitment to UCLA, Giolito also has the leverage of a strong college program to bring to the negotiating table.  The right-hander could forego a professional career for another three years if the opportunity to prove his health and get a quality education are worth more to him than the contract he’s offered out of high school.

How He Fits:  Like many of the high-upside pitchers before him, Giolito is a guy that would be a welcome addition to any minor league system.  Prior to ths spring, this right-hander was the consensus #1 high school player and likely a top-two overall pick in the Rule IV before the aforementioned UCL injury knocked him out for the prep season, so it’s not too bold to think that the pitcher with arguably the highest upside in the draft could be taken with the seventh overall pick.  In a perfect world, the Padres could see Giolito headlining a pitching staff with Casey Kelly, Joe Ross, Robbie Erlin, and Joe Wieland in the distant future.  That’s a dream that any San Diego fan can buy into.

Padres’ Best Shot: 1^st Pick (7^th overall)

Max Fried – LHP

What to Love:  Left-handed pitchers with size and stuff are hard enough to find.  Southpaws with command of their stuff and the athleticism to repeat their deliveries may be one the rarest breeds of all.  Max Fried, a teammate of the aforementioned Giolito, might as well be a thoroughbred.  Heading into the 2012 prep season, Fried was supposed to be the second part of a two-headed monster at Harvard Westlake High School.  Instead, Fried became the ace of the staff when Giolito went down with an elbow injury and led his high school team to a league championship this season.  This Southern California native breezed through the prep season, combining a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and touches 94 with a very good curveball and a developing changeup.  At 6’3 170 lbs, Fried also has an ideal pitcher’s frame that should allow him to gain weight and add even more velocity down the line.  While he doesn’t have the same upside as Giolito, many scouts can see middle-of-the-rotation potential for Fried, a designation that would only play up at PETCO Park.  Fried is also very athletic and is able to repeat his explosive delivery well.

What to Loath:  Though the fastball is clearly there, Fried’s secondary pitches are merely a work in progress as this point.  The curveball is much further along than the changeup, mostly because high school starters rarely have to use more than two pitches against amateur talent.  I wasn’t too impressed with the breaking ball at the Perfect Game All-American Classic this past fall – an offering that sat in the 70’s in that outing – but the velocity differential with his fastball and the promise of professional coaching makes me optimistic about his development of that pitch.  Like Giolito, Fried has committed to UCLA, making this southpaw a potentially tough sign, especially if his teammate decides to play for the Bruins over the next three seasons.

How He Fits:  Fried would be a fantastic addition to any farm system, though it’s unlikely that selecting this left-hander would grab as many headlines as a selection of Giolito would.  Fried is a safer play than his injured teammate and could end up being something like a left-handed Casey Kelly down the road.

Padres’ Best Shot: 1^st Pick (7^th overall)

Joey Gallo – 1B/3B, RHP

What to Love: Gallo is a big, strong two-way player out of Nevada with monster power potential.  Though he’s a right-handed thrower, Gallo has a big swing from the left side that has some impressive leverage and has allowed scouts to project him to hit a ton of home runs down the line.  Though he may outgrow the position in the future, Gallo has plenty of arm-strength to play third base at the next level.  Gallo’s arm has also gotten praise in his work as a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher, with the ability to reach the mid-90’s with his fastball while also flashing an impressive changeup and breaking ball.  Most evaluators believe that Gallo’s future is with the bat, but teams will be happy to know that selecting this young Nevadan will always have a contingency plan on the mound.  Still, given their offensive output as of late, one would fully expect the Padres brass to give Gallo every chance to prove himself with the bat before making him transition to the mound.

What to Loath: Though Gallo’s 6’5 205 lbs frame is impressive now, there are concerns that he’ll outgrow the hot corner and leave first base as his only capable position.  Scouts also believe that Gallo’s swing can be a bit long and will need to be shortened up if he is to hit for any kind of batting average in the future.  If pitching is Gallo’s future, most see him coming out of the bullpen rather than emerging as a starter at the next level.  Gallo is yet another elite college commit, signing with the LSU Tigers this past year, which could result in tough negotiations this summer.  Furthermore, San Diego and Gallo could see differently in terms of which position he will see the most success at in his professional career, thus becoming another potential hurdle to jump when trying to ink this young man.

How He Fits:  The Padres will always be a team that will need more power in their lineup, so Gallo wouldn’t be a hard piece to fit in San Diego’s plans.  Gallo is seen more as a late first rounder in this year’s draft, so the Padres will need a bit of luck if they are to see him fall to their first pick in the supplemental round.

Padres’ Best Shot: 2^nd Pick (33^rd Overall)

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Jedd Gyorko, INF (Double-A San Antonio) – After an abysmal start to the season Gyorko has been on fire since April 26^th hitting .351 with two home runs and two doubles.  He’s also logged 11 games through Thursday at second base for San Antonio and initial reports have been encouraging.  Gyorko has assisted in turning four double plays while committing just one error.  While errors don’t tell the whole story, evaluators have been encouraged by Gyorko’s ability to make most standard plays at second, yet doubt still lingers he can make the tougher plays necessary to stick at the position in the big leagues.  Even if Gyorko is able to stick at second for the next few years it seems clear he’ll be moved off second as his body continues to mature.

Rock Steady:

Keyvius Sampson, RHP (Double-A San Antonio) – After battling his control in his previous start, Sampson dominated Frisco on Thursday.  He was just one batter over the minimum through five before allowing a solo home run to Mike Olt.  This season he’s struck out 30 batters in 29.2 innings while allowing just 21 hits and one home run.  Jason Cole of Lone Star Dugout caught his most recent start, “Plus fastball at 91-94, top 95. Plus change. Avg curve. Stuff plays up due to pitchability.”  Prior to 2012, Sampson’s curveball was never a respected offering.  If he’s able to maintain two above average pitches, an average curveball and plus pitchability, any concerns that Sampson’s future lies in the bullpen should be quieted.

Adys Portillo, RHP (Single-A Fort Wayne) – Portillo fought through a tough start after being named Star Performer last week but was back to his dominant ways on Thursday.  Portillo threw a career high seven innings while striking out six, allowing just three base runners and retiring the last 13 batters he faced.  His walk rate of 4.3 batters per nine is by far the best of his career at any extended stop which pairs well with the fact that Portillo has allowed less than five hits per nine.  It’s a shame to think that Portillo may be relegated to bullpen duty with his strong frame and elite arm strength, but at this point in his career he’s still yet to establish legitimate secondary offerings.  That being said, Portillo is still just 20 years old and will have every opportunity in the world to remain in the rotation.

Jace Peterson, SS (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Peterson has flat out impressed in his first taste of full-season baseball.  In his last ten games Peterson has stolen eight bases while posting a slash line of .343/.439/.486 and playing solid defense.  While it’s tough to find a star-level tool in his game, it’s even tougher to project any of his five tools at less than a 50 if he continues to develop.

Other:

Alexi Amarista, UTIL (Triple-A Tucson) – San Diego acquired Amarista as part of the trade that sent Ernesto Frieri to the Angels.  Amarista has played six positions throughout his professional career and should give the Padres another versatile option at the back end of their roster.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear Amarista has much chance of being more than a useful player.  His hit tool is above average, but there isn’t much power to take advantage of his great bat control.  Similarly, Amarista has plus speed, but hasn’t shown great instincts on the basepaths – 34% caught stealing rate.

Donn Roach, RHP (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Roach was also acquired in the Frieri deal.  He throws an incredible sinker – 6.32 groundball-to-fly ball rate in 2012 – and not much else.  Roach throws a ton of strikes and shows good pitchability, but his ceiling likely sits around fifth starter or bullpen arm.

Star Performer:

Adys Portillo, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Walks are still a constant struggle for Portillo with 12 already in just 20.1 innings pitched, but his other peripherals have been much better.  So far he’s only allowed nine hits and a single homerun.  TinCap coaches have been encouraging Portillo to just let his fastball rip right down the middle of the zone so his approach will need some refinement before he’s able to really take off.

Rock Steady:

Frank Garces, LHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Garces has been on a tear since opening the season for the TinCaps.  In his Saturday start Garces went eight strong innings while allowing just six base runners and threw five solid innings on Thursday.  The 5’11” lefty has a devastating curveball when he’s on, but with his inconsistent control things can get ugly fast.

Matt Andriese, RHP (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Andriese has been nothing short of fantastic in his last two starts: 13IP 6H 0ER 3BB 10K and an obscene amount of ground ball outs.  The sinkerball specialist should have a lot of success in the California League this season as he seems to have a special distaste for fly balls – he has yet to allow a home run in almost 60 professional innings.

Matt Stites, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – In seven innings this season Stites is yet to allow a run or walk a batter while allowing just three hits and striking out 11.  With an above average fastball and potential knockout slider Stites projects well as a mid-to-late-inning reliever.  He was a three-pitch starter in college but his changeup hasn’t been as effective against professional hitters at this point.

Cody Hebner, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – With a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk rate Hebner has dominated Midwest League hitters with his mid-90s fastball and sweeping curve.  As has been previously mentioned before, there is a ton of deception in Hebner’s delivery, which should help him stay in the rotation as he advances through the organization.

Kevin Quackenbush, RHP (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Quackenbush has picked up right where he left off last season, allowing just one run in almost nine innings while striking out 12.  The 6’3” right hander will sit in the mid-90s with his fastball and projects as a late inning reliever if his secondary offerings can remain sharp.

Rico Noel, CF (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Last week’s star performer did nothing to lose that title, we just felt we needed to spread the love around a bit.  Coming into action Thursday, Noel had four multi-hit games in his last six contests.  In addition he’s 11-for-11 in steals while playing stellar defense in center.  A lot to like here from the 23-year-old switch hitter.

On the Upswing:

Joe Ross, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – In two starts this season Ross has gone 10 innings, giving up just five hits while striking out 13 and allowing one earned run.  Unfortunately he’s made two other starts that totaled 6.1 innings in which he’s allowed a staggering 11 earned runs and 14 hits while walking five batters.  Considering that Ross was in high school at this time last year, his lack of consistency at this point is neither surprising nor concerning.  The good news is that he’s healthy and striking out more than a batter an inning even with the rough starts.  Results aren’t important at this point in his career as long as his peripherals stay consistent.

Rymer Liriano, RF  (High-A Lake Elsinore) – While you have to squint a bit to see that Liriano has been improving the signs have been there.  After striking out 14 times in his first eight games he’s struck out just six times over his last 10 contests.  Four of his five walks this season have also come in that time frame along with his first steal of the season.  It’s been a slow start for Liriano but it looks like he’s finally getting out of his early season slump.

Luis Domoromo, LF (High-A Lake Elsinore) – With six hits in his last three games Domoromo has raised his average to .250 after getting off to a pretty lackluster start.  The 20-year-old Venezuelan is playing against a lot of older competition but his batting practice sessions and outfield defense have still been as impressive as ever.  Still has first-division potential.

Keyvius Sampson, RHP (Double-A San Antonio) – Sampson continues to roll along in his first season above Low A.  His strike out rate is down a bit, but considering the Padres skipped Sampson two levels this offseason that’s to be expected.  Word out of the Texas League is that Sampson has impressed without showing his usually sharp stuff.  That’s not to say he’s been walking too many batters, just that Samson has had a habit of falling behind hitter this season.  As he gets more comfortable pitching to advanced hitters it seems safe to expect another big year for the 21-year-old right-hander.

Signs of Struggling:

Juan Oramas, LHP (Double-A San Antonio) – Oramas has been all too hittable so far this season – 17 hits in 13 innings – with little control – nine walks.  His strikeout numbers are probably a bit of a mirage, though Oramas has struck out about a batter an inning during his professional career.

Other:

Yasmani Grandal, C (Triple-A Tucson) – Grandal was activated from the 7-day disabled list on Thursday after missing 17 days due to a leg injury.  The Cuban backstop wasn’t immediately put in the starting lineup but should see full game action this weekend.

Austin Hedges, C (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Like Grandal, Hedges was activated from the 7-day disabled list on Thursday.  Hedges went one-for-three with a walk after missing the Tincaps’ last 10 games with a shoulder injury.

Jedd Gyorko, INF (Double-A San Antonio) – The Padres have officially elected to give Gyorko a regular season trial at second base after an injury to outfielder Jaff Decker opened up an opportunity for a few guys to shift around.  In the words of one evaluator Gyorko has been “meh” so far at second – yes, seriously – which means that he hasn’t been astonishingly terrible or the second coming of Roberto Alomar.

On Monday, Kelly was scratched from his scheduled start due to what the team called “elbow discomfort.”  In the time since then GM Josh Byrnes has revealed that Kelly complained of elbow soreness after his last start, which caused the team to take an extremely cautious approach.

That cautious approach led to an MRI performed by Padres doctors back in San Diego that revealed elbow inflammation that would place Kelly on the disabled list for the next few weeks.

Will Carroll – who writes about injuries at SI.com – was kind enough to share a few thoughts on Kelly’s situation.

He said that elbow inflammation is not uncommon, especially in young pitchers. Nothing that has been revealed yet by the team is too serious, more annoying than anything else.

More than anything, San Diego needs to find out what caused the inflammation.  As mentioned above, the Padres’ coaching staff worked with Kelly to alter his delivery during Spring Training to make him quicker and more athletic to the plate, but now they must decide if that’s what caused the injury.

“Think about runners, sometimes they’ll get sore” Carroll said through email.  “They’ll change shoes or something and their knees will get sore or [they'll] have shin splints.  It’s not serious, but annoying.

“Same thing for a pitcher. Questions are: What changed? What was swelling up? Is this a precursor to bone chips or a minor sprain?”

Unfortunately, without more information publicly available we can’t answer all these questions.  For now, the Padres’ staff will continue to closely monitor Kelly’s progress and keep him on a timetable that won’t jeopardize his future.

Without much to play for in 2012 expect Kelly’s absence to be longer than normal if anything while the team figures out exactly what’s happening.

Make sure you follow Will Carroll on Twitter and check out his Under the Knife column at SI.

Rico Noel, CF (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Noel’s production this season has to be a very pleasant surprise to the Padres after tasking him with learning how to switch hit this last offseason.  He was 12-for-32 heading into Monday’s game with seven steals in as many attempts and hitting a robust .370 against righties in 27 at bats.  Noel is never going to be a big power guy, but with his speed and contact skills you’d like to see a few more extra-base hits.  With an insane 91.5% career steal rate even if Noel is limited to singles you’re almost guaranteed to see him on second soon enough.

Rock Steady:

Jace Peterson, SS (Low-A Fort Wayne) – It’s been a great stretch for Peterson so far hitting leadoff for the TinCaps.  With three doubles, a triple and a homerun Peterson has shown a strong bat to go with his three steals.  Defensive production is still a concern as he continues to show plus tools in his arm and glove, but at this point he hasn’t been able to put them together.

Casey Kelly, RHP (Triple-A Tucson) – Kelly’s season was off to a fantastic start – 2.25 ERA in 12 innings pitched – before news came down before his start on Monday that he was headed to the 7-day disabled list with a sore elbow.  At last check there was no definitive word on exactly what plagued Kelly or a firm time table.

Austin Hedges, C (Low-A Fort Wayne) – The defensive-minded backstop has done nothing but impress with his bat this season, hitting .286/.394/.536 in 28 at bats.  Although he’s only managed to catch 32% of base stealers according to the box scores, at least three of those successful steal attempts can be pegged squarely on Peterson and Travis Whitmore failing to complete the play at second base.

Jason Hagerty, C (Double-A San Antonio) – Hagerty is never going to be a big power guy, but two home runs and a miniscule strikeout rate so far this season have given him some well-deserved attention.  Now firmly planted as the third-best catching prospect in the system, Hagerty may just be able to fly under the radar long enough to surprise some people.

Keyvius Sampson, RHP (Double-A San Antonio) – Sampson has been nothing short of overpowering in his first taste of Double A.  In 9.1 innings he’s struck out 10 while walking just one and allowing two earned runs.  Sampson generated serious buzz in Spring Training with word that his curveball looked much improved.  With a plus fastball and a 60/65 changeup, Sampson needs little more than a solid-average curveball to be a number two or really good number three starter in the majors.

Cody Hebner, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Much like Sampson, Hebner has been dominant in his two outings this season striking out 12 men in 10 innings while allowing just two earned runs.  With a big fastball and an ever-improving curveball Hebner should be able to remain productive throughout his first year of full-season baseball.

Signs of Struggling:

Rymer Liriano, RF (High-A Lake Elsinore) – It’s been pretty obvious that Liriano has been pressing early in the season.  He’s been swinging at a lot of bad pitches, which is not at all a characteristic of his game.  While he hasn’t been on base much, 0-for-3 on steals may be the biggest surprise so far.

Corey Adamson, OF (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Adamson’s lone hit on the season was an impressive homerun on a cool day in Michigan.  While .042 will turn heads for the wrong reasons, Adamson is still finding himself as a player and is likely still a year away from really producing consistently.

Luis Domoromo, LF (High-A Lake Elsinore) – It’s been a rough go so far for Domoromo in his first taste of High A, but he’s looking great in batting practice and should turn around his early season struggles soon.

Donavan Tate, LF (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Tate has been an impressive catalyst at the top of the TinCaps’ lineup this season when he’s gotten on base, but the unfortunate part of that equation is that it doesn’t happen too often.  He has such a physical frame that you’d like to see more than one extra-base hit in 38 at bats, but it’s clear Tate still has a lot of developing to do on the diamond.

Other:

Joe Wieland, RHP (Triple-A Tucson) – Wieland became the first top prospect to make his 2012 debut when he was called up to replace Dustin Moseley in the Padres’ rotation on Saturday.  While Matt Kemp understandably schooled him, Wieland did manage to make a few adjustments to his delivery to help keep the ball down in the zone mid game.  His stuff has come a long way over the last year and a half, but he’s never going to be the type of guy that can work up in the zone.  The Padres were impressed with the way Wieland handled himself early in Saturday’s game, but there’s been no word yet to the extent of his time on the 25-man roster.

Joe Ross – Ross has been the talk of spring so far among scouts and coaches.  Everyone who has worked with him is quick to point out his fantastic makeup and excellent rapport with the coaching staff and his teammates – one reason why the Padres weren’t hesitant to send Ross directly to the Midwest League to start his career.

His fastball has sat comfortably in the 93-95 range, topping out at 96 in each outing.  He’s got great feel for both his 12-to-6 curveball and fading changeup, throwing both for strikes to right and left-handed batters.

Ross’ delivery is very smooth and his arm action is clean.  He has more than enough athleticism to repeat his delivery over extended outings and already commands his pitches well.

Padres coaches were working with Ross to extend out the release point on his curveball to give it more bite during a bullpen session as he has a tendency to throw it more for called strikes than a swinging out pitch.

Ross has a well-proportioned frame that should allow him to draw more strength in his leg drive as he matures, removing any unnecessary stress from his arm.

Matt Wisler – Wisler was locating his pitches really well when I saw him.  His fastball command was very sharp, but the pitch looked mostly straight throughout his outing with a bit of arm-side run on a few.

I think there’s more velocity in his delivery, as Wisler doesn’t get great leg extension out of the windup or stretch.  At times he’ll land a little stiff on his front leg, forcing his arm to do more work than it should.  It’s not a huge problem at the moment as the rest of his mechanics are relatively clean, but when dealing with pitchers anyway possible to minimize injury risk is ideal.

In addition, his frame could easily add a decent amount of weight as he matures physically leading to more consistent and sustainable velocity.

Wisler’s curveball was the real star of the outing.  Typically it’s difficult for young pitchers to spot a true curveball in the strike zone, but Wisler seemed more interested in throwing it for strikes than burying it in the dirt.  As he advances through the organization he’ll have to learn how to do both.

His changeup definitely wasn’t the worst of all the young pitchers in the game but Wisler will struggle against lefties until it improves.

Below is a pitch chart with velocities for one of the two innings in his outing:
90-FB, 91-FB, 85-CH, 79-CB – strikeout looking
93-FB – single
92-FB – single
73-CB – ground out
79-CB – deep fly ball

John Barbato – Barbato fought with consistency while in Arizona.  In the outing I watched in person Barbato had good life and tail on his fastball, but little if any idea where it was going.  The pace of his delivery was inconsistent causing him to lose his release point.

When on point Barbato’s fastball is a legitimate 55/60 pitch based on velocity and movement.

His curveball looked great and could be an above average pitch in the future.  Barbato’s changeup is still very rough but he has decent feel for it.

Physically Barbato has little if any projection left in his body.  He’s taken a bit of heat from scouts and evaluators over the last few years but Barbato looks strong and in good shape.  He definitely doesn’t have a bad body but he does have what some like to call a “work body” – meaning Barbato is going to have to work at staying in shape his entire career, not the most irrational thing ever asked of a professional athlete.

Below is a pitch chart with velocities for two of the three innings in his outing:
First inning:
92-FB, 76-CB, 92-FB, 94-FB – strikeout swinging
93-FB, 93-FB, 75-CB, 92-FB – pop up
75-CB, 93-FB, 76-CB, 92-FB – fly out

Second inning:
93-FB – double
91-FB, 92-FB – double
91-FB, 91-FB, 72-CB, 73-CB – fly ball
91-FB, 90-FB, 82-CH, 73-CB – ground out
93-FB, 82-CH – single
90-FB, 91-FB, 82-CH, 90-FB, 91-FB – walk
83-CH, 82-CH, 92-FB – fly out

Quick Hits

Uber Paz – Consistency is key with Paz.  He’s got a very live arm and enough athleticism to repeat his delivery, but struggles with tipping his pitches by changing arm angles.

Padres coaches were working on getting his head into the same position when delivering different pitches though it was clear Paz has ways to go.

The fastball had great life to it and plays as a really heavy pitch when it’s on.  His changeup isn’t bad in and of itself, but still lacks much deception – same with the curveball.  Don’t be surprised if he scraps the curveball for a slider at some point.

Matt Jackson – Nothing much to say here outside of the fact that I love Jackson’s delivery.  He strikes me as a guy that may not be a dominant major leaguer, but he’ll definitely have some sort of a career.  Keep an eye out for him.

Jose De Paula – De Paula was working on getting better extension with his pitches and finishing his delivery when I saw him throw a bullpen session.  Overall he’s got an easy delivery with great toe drag.

He’s had a declining strikeout rate and rising walk rate each of the last four seasons so more consistency could be a huge breakthrough for him.

Cody Hebner – Henber was more polished than I expected.  The fastball has great life and the curveball was sharp when I saw him.  His delivery adds some deception as he’ll bring his left knee almost level with his left shoulder.  He’s a great athlete with a big arm so his actions are fluid throughout.

Genison Reyes – Reyes may have been the surprise of camp.  When I was first told about him no one even knew with any certainty what his first name was but everyone was sure that he was ‘a guy’.

Long and lanky, Reyes has a great frame to add more strength and a lightning fast arm that lets him sit in the mid-90s.  He was throwing a messy slider when I saw him that would show anywhere from plus to “wow, that looks like a really bad curveball” depending on where he released it.

He’s not a name you’ll see mentioned often, but keep an eye out for #MysteryReyes if you are around a Padres minor league field.

Jace Peterson – Peterson didn’t see too much action in games while I was in Arizona.  During batting practice he showed a much quieter swing than he had featured as an amateur – a testament to Padres coaches and Peterson’s own work ethic – and had a definite athleticism to his game.

At this point the best thing for him is to get as many at bats as possible.  As has been noted before, Peterson is focusing fully on baseball for the first time in his life.  His game is raw on both sides, but the ceiling is there.  The 4.2 he ran to first on a double play was a bit lackluster, but Peterson will normally sit in the 4.0-4.1 range hitting left handed, which is above average.

I’ve heard from more than a few people in the industry who aren’t completely sold on Peterson’s baseball future, but the tools are there for him to fight his way into the Padres’ future.

Duanel Jones – Jones is a pretty impressive looking guy if you’ve never seen him in person.  Officially listed at 6’3”, it looks like the 18-year-old has out grown that a bit.

In BP Jones shows off his above average raw power with towering fly balls to left field with great backspin, but then will lose any sense of barrel awareness for his next few swings.  His timing isn’t well refined at this point – to be kind – but he’s well on par with the other raw teenagers around him.

Once Jones begins to refine his timing you’ll start to see much better use of his hands in his swing.  He’s going to be a bit of a hacker for a while – and likely will strikeout a good amount throughout his career – but the natural bat speed and leftover physical projection are both enough for him to be special.

Defensively, Jones has been in the lineup primarily as a designated hitter this spring, which speaks to his skill set on that end.  A third baseman at the moment, Jones has a very strong arm but clumsy actions at the hot corner.  A move to first base is likely in his future – with a quick outfield trial possible as well – but the Padres will look to hold that off as long as possible.

Mykal Stokes – Stokes is a good-looking athlete who’s wirey strong.  The Padres have been trying him as a leadoff man, but Stokes’ approach will leave a lot be desired.

The speed is legitimate on the basepaths and often saves him on poor reads in center field.  He showed great awareness and instincts running the bases, which should come as no shock considering his 21 career steals in 24 attempts.

It’d be ideal to see what Stokes could do with consistent playing time against players of his same development level, but that likely means keeping him back for a spot with the Eugene Emeralds in June.

Rymer Liriano – Liriano has quickly become the crown jewel of the low minors for the Padres.  He was constantly receiving one-on-one coaching from members of the San Diego staff and mostly worked on specific swing mechanics throughout his in-game action.

Liriano’s BP is on another level at most times.  His wrist and forearm strength compare favorably to just about every player on the field and his barrel awareness is extremely advanced for his age.

He’s not quite the overall physical specimen that Donavan Tate is, but it’s hard to find an area to complain about on Liriano.  Most scouts don’t expect him to keep his 65 speed, but Liriano hasn’t shown any signs of…slowing down…(sorry) yet.

Cody Decker – The only real newsworthy item here is that the Padres have been giving Decker a shot at third in morning workouts.  The down side here is that thus far he’s been Edinson-Rincon like at best.

The good news is that Decker looks completely healthy after last season’s ankle woes.

Cory Spangenberg – There are no guarantees when dealing with prospects but Spangenberg looks more like a career .300 hitter than anyone I’ve ever seen in person in the minors.  He’s got the best hands in the system and an amazingly mature approach to plate coverage for a player with such little advanced coaching.

Pessimism usually rings louder when projecting Spangenberg’s power potential, but he has a good enough approach and surprisingly large frame to develop into average power.

Spangenberg has looked much more comfortable at second base compared to 2011 turning double plays and fielding ground balls up the middle.  He’s athletic enough to develop into a plus defender up the middle with fringe-average arm strength.

Fort Wayne TinCaps

Pitchers

John Barbato, RHP
Luis De La Cruz, RHP
Robert Eisenbach, LHP
Frank Garces, LHP
Justin Hancock, RHP
Christopher Haney, RHP
Cody Hebner, RHP
Michael Kelly, RHP
Adys Portillo, RHP
Colin Rea, RHP
Joe Ross, RHP
Daniel Sarria, RHP
Matt Stites, RHP
Matthew Wisler, RHP

Hitters

Catchers:
Matt Colantonio
Austin Hedges

Infielders:
Zach Kometani
Casey McElroy
Justin Miller
Jace Peterson
Travis Whitmore

Outfielders:
Corey Adamson
Jose Dore
Kyle Gaedale
Alberth Martinez
Donavan Tate

Lake Elsinore Storm

Pitchers

Matt Andriese, RHP
Mark Pope, RHP
Burch Smith, RHP
Matt Branham, RHP
Jeremy Gigliotti, LHP
Jerry Sullivan, RHP
Ryan Quigley, RHP
Yefri Carvajal, RHP
Chris Fetter, RHP
Chris Franklin, RHP
Mark Hardy, LHP
Matt Jackson, RHP
Robert Lara, RHP
Dennis O’Grady, RHP
Kevin Quackenbush, RHP

Hitters

Catchers:
Rocky Gale
Eddy Rodriguez

Infielders:
Chris Bisson
Michael Wing
Bryan Altman
BJ Guinn
Connor Powers
Cory Spangenberg
Tyler Stubblefield

Outfielders:
Luis Domoromo
Rymer Liriano
Rico Noel
Everett Williams

San Antonio Missions

Pitchers

Robbie Erlin, LHP
Hayden Beard, RHP
Dustin Pease, LHP
Jason Ray, RHP
Matt Lollis, RHP
Miles Mikolas, RHP
Jeremy McBryde, RHP
Andrew Werner, LHP
Erik Hamren, RHP
Jeff Ibarra, LHP
Ryan Kelly, RHP
Alexis Lara, RHP
Juan Oramas, LHP
Keyvius Sampson, RHP

Hitters

Catchers:
Jason Hagerty
Ali Solis

Infielders:
Nate Frieman
Jonathan Galvez
Jedd Gyorko
Cody Decker
Dean Anna
Jeudy Valdez

Outfielders:
Edinson Rincon
Reymond Fuentes
Jaff Decker
Carlos Sosa

Tucson Padres

Pitchers

Casey Kelly, RHP
Joe Wieland, RHP
Jeff Suppan, RHP
Brad Boxberger, RHP
Alex Hinshaw, LHP
Cory Burns, RHP
Josh Geer, RHP
Jorge Reyes, RHP
Nick Vincent, RHP

Hitters

Catchers:
Yasmani Grandal

Outfielders:
Blake Tekotte
James Darnell

Jose Dore – Dore has always been a bit of a personal favorite of mine.  Great athletes with some idea of how to play baseball and great makeup don’t come along too often and the Padres have been encouraged with his progress – as slow as it has been – since he joined the organization as a 2010 draftee.

Dore’s swing is much cleaner and more organized than when he first joined the Padres.  He keeps his hands high with a quiet load that leads to a nice, balanced swing that allows Dore to square up balls and make the type of consistently hard contact his game had been missing. 

The final piece in completing his swing overhaul will be to better incorporate his lower half.  At the moment, Dore’s swing is based on smooth actions with his arms meaning that his legs are just there to keep him balanced.  Once he learns to use his legs as a source of power Dore’s swing will begin to benefit from better leverage, which means more extra base hits and overall consistency.

He has a great history of patience and decent contact rates so there are definite reasons to feel positive about Dore in 2012.  He popped a 400-foot home run to right center during batting practice when I saw him and consistently was spraying line drives to mostly right and center field.

Defensively, Dore has the tools to play in either corner and didn’t embarrass himself at first base when the Padres moved him around to accommodate more limited players on the backfields.

A return trip to Fort Wayne is likely in the cards for Dore in 2012, and at just 20 years old there’s still a lot to be excited about.

Donavan Tate – It’s not enough to just say that Tate stands out physically when standing next to the other early-20s players on the field.  He is an absolute physical monster whose elite athleticism and raw tools give him the highest overall ceiling in the system.

This spring Tate has looked much more confident and aggressive at the plate, meaning his physical tools may finally be turning into baseball skills.  Still, there is little if any consistency to his offensive game.

During batting practice sessions you’ll see swings where Tate features a quiet load that leads beautifully into him planting his leg and turning on balls with his plus bat speed.  Unfortunately that represents about 20% of his batting practice swings with the other 80% looking more like an über athlete that just picked up a bat last weekend.  It’s a harsh observation, but an absolute reality.

There are enough of the well-balanced swings where he’ll pepper the gaps or crush a ball over 400-plus feet to left center to give you a lot to be excited about in 2012.  Although the raw power is very real, Tate looks to be a year or so away from showing it on any sort of regular basis in game situations.  In his most interesting at bat while I was in Arizona, Tate got a chance to step in against a rehabbing Brandon League.  Tate’s approach was impressive, going after anything he saw that was hard and hittable, but he was unable to figure out League’s timing and couldn’t square up the ball.

Defensively, Tate played all three outfield positions getting good reads on balls and showing off his plus arm strength.  He’ll likely play center field this season in Fort Wayne, but with Cameron Maybin firmly planted in San Diego it’ll be interesting to see if Tate will be able to hit enough to play full time in right.

Luis Domoromo – Domoromo may have had the most impressive batting practice sessions I saw while in Arizona.  His approach at the plate is quite good for his age and overall athleticism is evident in his swing.

Domoromo was consistently lacing balls to the left field fence (as a left-handed hitter) and showed why he could be a huge power guy in the California League this season.  One thing to keep an eye on this year will be Domoromo’s energy level late in the season.  Last season he tired down the stretch and lost a lot of bat speed.

He wasn’t playing in the field in the games that I saw, but there’s no reason to think his plus arm and average speed have deteriorated.

Austin Hedges – Let’s get the obvious part out of the way: Hedges’ defense is beautiful.  I hadn’t seen Hedges in person, and – needless to say – he didn’t disappoint.

The guy is a absolute statue when set up for a pitch.  After flashing the pitch call to his batterymate Hedges will slide into position behind the plate, extend out his glove to show a crystal-clear target and then remain completely still until the balls pops into his glove.  As recent studies have shown, catcher framing is a huge part of the position that we – the public – are just starting to be able to measure.

It gets better.

When a runner does decide to test Hedges’ arm the scene just becomes more of a spectacle for everyone in attendance.  The 19-year-old backstop will consistently register pop times – the seconds measured between the ball hitting his glove and it landing safely with the either the shortstop or second baseman on a steal attempt – in the 1.75-1.90 range.  To put that in perspective, an average major league catcher needs to at least be able to register a 2.2-2.25 pop time to remain a viable defensive option.

One area where Hedges will need to improve is blocking balls in the dirt.  There are always going to be balls that are legitimate wild pitches by no fault of the catcher, but Hedges does have room for improvement in this area.  His instincts when leaving the crouch position are top notch, so it should just be a matter of experience, which isn’t a shocking conclusion for a teenage catcher who is just about to begin his first full season as a professional.

Since I’ve been asked for this kind of comparison before, I’d say that right now Hedges is probably a better technical defender than about a third of major league catchers.  Give him two to three seasons in the minors and the only thing in the way of a major league career for Hedges will be his bat.

Speaking of his bat, there are a lot of things to be encouraged about.  Hedges’ bat speed holds up well to premium velocity and his swing is technically sound enough that I wouldn’t be shocked to see him succeed right away in the Midwest League.

Hedges’ stance is upright, yet athletic with his hands held high and a front-foot trigger that when engaged widens his feet up a bit allowing him to drop down into more of an aggressive, line drive bat plane.

Hedges has great speed for a catcher, consistently clocking times to first in the sub-4.3 range.  Ideally his lower half will fill out a bit – giving him what scouts affectionately call “catcher’s ass” – which would help improve his durability behind the plate and give his legs more strength to work more power into what is currently a gap-to-gap singles approach.

The Padres’ coaching staff’s affinity for Hedges is obvious.  He’s got a great attitude towards the game and everyone I heard from said he has taken well to instruction and should be an organizational leader from Day 1.

Do the Padres really expect the hit tool to develop with Austin Hedges?  3MIL even for a Gold Glove-type catcher seems a little excessive given concerns about his hitting – Gabe

In short, yes.  Hedges is a great example of a player in the draft who caused many teams to have differing opinions.  While there was absolutely no one denying his defensive prowess, the combination of Hedges’ high school team almost never holding batting practice sessions that were open to scouts and media members and opponents constantly pitching around him led to few teams having much experience watching Hedges’ bat in action.

Luckily for the Padres, Jaron Madison and his team were able to get more good looks of Hedges than just about any other team in the league.  Like with any player there’s no guarantee that Hedges will mature and progress to the point of reaching the majors, but you can be sure that no team in the league – not just the budget-minded Padres – would be willing to spend $3 million on a player they didn’t feel had a great chance of turning into a star.

It’s also important to remember just how low the hitting bar is at catcher in modern-day baseball.  Outside of 2010, MLB catchers have produced the worst offensive output of any position in baseball every year since 2000.  The Padres don’t need Hedges to post an .800 OPS to be a star with his defensive tools.  Though should he get to that point – which a few key people in the organization believe he can – you’re looking at a perennial All Star.

There’s been a lot of talk about breakout players for 2012, but who do you think is going to slide a bit on lists? – Angel

Apologies Angel, but I’m going to side step your question slightly here to avoid bringing unfair criticism on any players that haven’t done anything wrong.  On the other hand you do bring up a good point that I think is important for Padres fans to understand.

Consider this: What top Padres prospects failed in 2011?

Outside of Simon Castro’s continued backslide, more missed time for Donavan Tate and Jaff Decker’s struggles to keep his batting average at expected levels it’s tough to find guys that didn’t either continue to progress or take a giant leap forward in their development.

It’s impossible to know what 2012 will bring no matter how many high-floor prospects are in the organization.  A rash of injuries or the stalled development of a guy like Rymer Liriano (*knocks on wood*) would simply be par-for-the-course in the unpredictable world of player development.  While the future certainly looks bright, here’s to hoping that 2012 isn’t a rough regression to the mean.

For a team that lacks the truly elite prospects in their system, does it concern you that the Padres cannot acquire elite talent through free agency? – Riley

Riley, I think it’s safe to assume that you’ve stumbled across the question that keeps Josh Byrnes and his team up at night.

In recent years we’ve seen the model most big-budget teams decide to pursue involves developing cheap role players and borderline All Stars while chasing superstars in free agency.  Mid-market teams tend have tended to focus more on investing heavily in player development while pursuing middle-of-the-road free agents to help push the franchise over the edge.  Finally you arrive at the riskiest approach that small-market teams have found success using, a strategy that involves breaking the bank in the draft and international free agency for potential superstars while taking what scraps are left in January and February on the free agent market.

Changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement and overall evolution in front office strategies have led to a blurring of the lines in the previously mentioned categories and the Padres are a prime contributor to this.  They’ve elected to spend big in the draft and international free agency but have spread the risk to many talented prospects rather than a few costly studs with high ceilings and even higher bust potential.

Would Byrnes love to have a Bryce Harper or Mike Trout in the system?  Sure, but the strategy that has brought in high floor guys like Yasmani Grandal, Robbie Erlin, Joe Wieland, Yonder Alonso and others while focusing on keeping talents like Cameron Maybin through their primes at a reasonable price seems to be quite sound in theory.

What does the Cameron Maybin extension mean for guys like Tate and Reymond Fuentes? – Eric

First off, Corey Brock had a great breakdown of Maybin’s new contract and a few interesting tidbits surrounding the situation.  I’m a big Maybin fan – while also obsessed with elite defenders – so it was great to see team and player hook up for a mutually beneficial deal that will keep a fan favorite and elite talent in town for the long haul.

Referring to the most recent edition of the Padres’ Top 25 Prospects, you’ll see that we have the ETAs of Tate and Fuentes as Late 2015 and Late 2014, respectively.  Before the extension this fit perfectly into the Padres’ plans as Maybin’s most expensive arbitration year would have been 2015 when he reached his walk year.

Now, the Padres are left with two center field prospects whose value is heavily tied to their positional scarcity and nowhere to play them should they force their way to San Diego.  Barring injury, it’s all but guaranteed Maybin will perform well enough over the next five seasons to remain the starter.

The best-case scenario for the Padres is that center field depth takes shape similarly to how the organization’s catching glut is being handled.  Have a veteran that you truly believe in, keep your top prospects as insurance and then react with a trade to remove logjams and acquire a needed piece.

What a nice problem to have.

If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag that will be posted later in Spring Training, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com