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In a vacuum, Gyorko is absolutely ready for a shot at regular playing time with the Padres.  While his numbers are artificially inflated due to the friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, the scouting reports on his bat have pegged him as ready for a new challenge since late June.  On the defensive end, Gyorko has at least an average glove at third if not a tick above with enough arm strength to make every necessary play.  At second base where Gyorko has spent about a third of his time this season, he lacks enough true range to stick at the position long term but is a good enough athlete to be an average defender there over a short period of time.

A Full 40-Man

Each MLB team is given 40 roster positions they can fill to then whittle down to their 25-man active roster for game days.  Usually the 40-man roster will include guys on the MLB 15-day disabled list, a few insurance policies in Triple A for the pitching staff, utility options in the upper minors, international prospects who have been with the organization for five or more years and a top prospect or two who are on the cusp of a call up.

To this point the Padres haven’t elected to add Gyorko to their 40-man roster, making a potential move to bring him to San Diego a little tougher.  Starting pitcher Andrew Werner took the most recent spot that opened up with Jason Bartlett’s release, and as of now another opening doesn’t appear imminent.  Add that to the fact that Jonathan Galvez will need to be protected this winter and both Casey Kelly and Robbie Erlin will needs spots of their own and you can start to see why the Padres may see keeping Gyorko off the 40-man as the most attractive option.

The Chase Headley Factor

A year ago it would have been almost impossible to think that Headley would be one of the most productive players in the game at his position, even when crediting his undervalued skillset.  Yet the fact is that Headley has turned himself into an essential piece for the Padres, and one they didn’t appear too keen on giving up during the recent trade deadline.

Now the Padres are faced with a tough decision as they prepare for the offseason.  There’s a decent chance that Headley is putting up his career-best offensive season (when looking at statistics that are adjusted to factor in park effects), but he has also become the Padres’ most consistent offensive player while providing a steady veteran presence on what is already a young team that should only get younger.

By giving up Headley this offseason – even for what we’ll assume is a premium package – San Diego will place all of their eggs firmly in the Gyorko basket which is an incredible amount of risk for a front office that is working under brand new ownership.

Oh, and All The Other Guys

This season Alexi Amarista (0.7 WAR), Everth Cabrera (1.7 WAR) and Logan Forsythe (0.7 WAR) have each provided enough value to earn playing time in a rotation that just may be solid enough to solidify the Padres moving forward.  While each player is likely borderline replacement level on their own, the offensive bar at second base, shortstop and third base is so low that their versatility may outweigh their shortcomings.

Although Gyorko is unable to play shortstop, in theory he should be able to more than replace the production the Padres have received from their second base rotation.  Yet a move that would remove Amarista, Cabrera or Forsythe from regular playing time doesn’t seem to make a ton of sense, as all three players are performing admirably and project to improve with more experience at the big league level.  In addition, benching any of the three at this point would all but ruin their trade value and prove to be an inefficient use of assets for the Padres.

Trade Gyorko?

While it doesn’t seem like a completely realistic option, San Diego does have the choice of packaging Gyorko with a few other attractive pieces in a deal to consolidate talent.  Such a deal borders on a topic that we’ve touched on before: at some point the Padres will reach a tipping point where their farm system will not only become an asset to replenish the big league club, but also create a steady line of tradable assets to add the final pieces to a contending club.

Without even considering the recent winning ways of the Padres it’s perfectly reasonable to expect contention in the next two-to-three season, meaning trading Gyorko and others for a controllable asset that could possibly move up that timeline may not be all that farfetched.

*****

With all that said, there’s still a very real chance Gyorko makes his professional MLB debut this season.  But whatever happens it’s extremely important to keep in mind that this decision has the potential to cause huge ripple effects throughout the organization.  While Gyorko’s skillset is extremely impressive and appears to be MLB ready, he is nowhere close to a proven commodity.

Every player has growing pains at some point, even the ones that make it all the way through their first season unscathed.  A call up of Gyorko at this point would have to come at the expense of a player who is performing well which would only add to the extreme pressure he will be facing as one of the assumed building blocks of what appears to be a bright future.

At this point in the season the earliest Gyorko will be called up is September 1, meaning 100 at bats is about the best you can hope for as far as sample size goes even making the unlikely assumption that he would play everyday.  Though neither of these players are real comparisons skillset-wise to Gyorko, consider that Yonder Alonso put up a .330/.398/.545 line in 98 plate appearances in 2011 while Mike Trout posted a .220/.281/.390 line in 135 plate appearances and you can see that even a 30-game cameo for Gyorko in 2012 would provide little value to the Padres as they head into an offseason where they’ll need to evaluate the future of their infield.

Bring him up? Keep him down? Trade him? Just be glad the decision’s not yours.

The post The Complicated Situation of Jedd Gyorko appeared first on Padres Prospects.

Henry Charles – Charles is in his first season of stateside baseball after spending all of last year in the Dominican Summer League.  Although his AZL line of .254/.336/.336 isn’t overly impressive, he has the tools to be a solid regular in an outfield corner.  His speed precludes him from playing in center field, but Charles may be able to stick in right with his above average arm.  Charles isn’t an extremely physical player at the moment but should fill out his 6-foot-3 frame over the coming years.  He’s got a solid approach at the plate and a pretty clean swing making him an intriguing option as a breakout player in 2013 or 2014, which is part of the reason I thought he deserved a spot in the Top 25.

Matt Clark – Clark is a bat first player that splits time between first base and left field, but even his bat can be questionable at times.  In the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League Clark has a .289/.364/.502 career line in 244 games with 45 home runs.  Now 25 years old, Clark has never been added to the 40-man roster meaning any team that was interested in giving him playing time could have likely acquired him by now.  Many times these guys get a shot at some point (see Bryan Lahair), but it seems clear the Padres are in no rush to see what Clark has to offer.  He remains a valuable piece in the organization as a veteran presence and insurance option, but it’s tough to see much beyond that.

Duanel Jones – Jones did not crack the recent Top 25 because of a down year, but is definitely a guy.  There’s still a decent amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but Jones has cracked down some on strikeouts this season.  He has at least 60 raw power if not more, but that rarely comes into play during games.  If you want a reason to believe in his offensive potential, Jones’ 23 doubles are quite promising and he draws a fair amount of walks for his experience level.  Defensively Jones is still a complete mess at third base with few outside the organization giving him a shot to stick at the hot corner.  His arm is plenty strong enough but to this point Jones hasn’t shown the ability to progress at third base in refining his defensive abilities.

Here’s video of Jones from Spring Training:

Uber Paz – Back in Spring Training I noted that Paz was having trouble repeating his delivery to the point that he was tipping his pitches.  Fast forward four months and Paz is still going through the same troubles when facing far less experienced AZL hitters.  His arm still holds a lot of promise, but until he can gain some form of consistency Paz will be unable to pitch with much success let alone start.

Here’s video of Paz from Spring Training:

Nate Freiman – Freiman is very much in the mold of Clark, in that he is a relatively untested bat-first guy who is likely stuck at first base.  Freiman has a balanced swing that produces some of the easiest 65 power you’ll see even considering his 6-foot-7 frame.  Now 25 in Double A, Freiman offers no physical projection and isn’t expected to further develop skills wise.  He can play a decent first base but is clearly not one of the more agile first baseman you will see.  Freiman may get a shot at some point, but his chances of sticking on an MLB roster for an extended period of time seem slim.

Burch Smith – Smith is a University of Oklahoma product who is in his first year of full-season baseball.  At his best, Smith will sit in the low 90s with serious life on his fastball and an above average off-speed offering in the low 80s.  That combination has led to a good amount of strikeouts and fly balls this season and has caused his name to pop up among scouts as a potential steal in the draft.  It’s easy to get excited about Smith based off his box score lines this season but expectations must be tempered as evaluators are still just warming to him as more than just a name to watch.

Rodney Daal – Daal is likely the most interesting prospect of this entire group as he is still just 18 and has yet to appear in full season baseball.  He is a bat-first catcher who still needs a decent amount of work behind the plate but should be able to stick baring unforeseen developmental problems.  Still, Daal’s calling card will always be his bat, which currently shows a solid hit tool and probably 55 raw power.  His approach at the plate is impressive for his experience level and will definitely be an asset in his development.  Daal’s success could be a potential boost for baseball as he is one of the few players currently in the minors signed out of Europe.

The post Players You’re Intrigued By But Know Little About appeared first on Padres Prospects.

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

Updated: July 2012

*Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, Alexi Amarista, Anthony Bass and Joe Wieland were not eligible for this list due to their big league status*

1) Rymer Liriano – With the graduations of Grandal and Alonso, Liriano is able to reclaim his spot as the Padres’ top prospect.  A surprising midseason promotion to Double A offered a new challenge for the 21 year old who still has 20/20 potential with plus defense in right field. ETA: Late 2013

2) Keyvius Sampson – Although his stat line looks less than dominant, Sampson has had a huge year for the progression of his career.  The Padres elected to skip the 21-year-old Florida native over High A as a way to jump start his advancement through the organization after he came to camp this Spring with an improved curveball.  ETA: Late 2013

3) Jedd Gyorko – Gyorko has seen his stock rise as much as any Padres prospect this season after putting up huge numbers in San Antonio and Tucson, and a call up appears more imminent than ever.  Still, baring a trade or injury Gyorko is unlikely to see action until later in the season even with his newfound versatility as a serviceable second baseman.  ETA: 2012

4) Max Fried – Fried is making his first appearance in the Padres’ Top 25 after being selected eighth overall in the 2012 MLB Draft.  Fried is scheduled to throw about 20 innings this season in the Arizona League before his preparation for 2013 will begin.  The 18-year-old lefty offers top-of-the-rotation upside and may be benefiting in these rankings from limited play thus far.  ETA: Late 2015

5) Austin Hedges – It’s tough to say enough about how impressive Hedges’ 2012 campaign has been thus far as he’s managed to keep a respectable batting average, show an excellent approach and hit for a surprising amount of power in his first full season of professional baseball while playing elite defense behind the plate.  Hedges’ bat is much more advanced than most scouts had come to believe which could shorten his development time in a big way.  ETA: Late 2014

6) Joe Ross – Ross drew the attention of many evaluators this winter by showing great stuff during Instructs, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued his 2012 campaign.  Ross is just getting back to game action in his rehab process and should be able to make several starts to save 2012 from being somewhat of a lost season.  ETA: Late 2014

7) Casey Kelly – Kelly looked great to begin the season with a ramped up delivery that had given his arsenal more life than ever.  Unfortunately a mysterious elbow injury has caused him to miss more than three months of game action at a time when he likely could have made his way to San Diego due to a rash of injuries throughout the top of the organization.  Health is most important at this point so it’s doubtful that Kelly will see time with the Padres in 2012.  ETA: 2012

8) Robbie Erlin – Erlin looked like he was on the fast track until injuries caught up to him this season in the form of an oblique strain that delayed the start of his year and elbow tendinitis that has had him out since May.  The elbow injury shouldn’t have any long-term effects meaning his prospect status has remained mostly unchanged.  ETA: 2013

9) Matt Wisler – This may be an overly optimistic ranking, but so far the scouting reports have matched up with Wisler’s superior production at just 19 in the Midwest League.  He was drafted in 2011 as a projectable high school righty and Wisler has already shown a tremendous amount of development.  He has a shot at three average or better pitches, which gives him a great, shot at seeing time in San Diego.  ETA: Late 2015

10) Cory Spangenberg – Spangenberg received an aggressive promotion to start his season when he was assigned to High A, but he’s shown a solid level of production.  A concussion and subsequent symptoms have slowed him down of late.  Spangenberg has shown off his speed and hit tools but still needs to refine his other tools before he is ready to take the next step forward in his development.  ETA: 2014

11) Jonathan Galvez – After being yet another Padres prospect slowed due to an early season injury Galvez has stormed back to post impressive offensive numbers in a league many weren’t convinced he was ready for.  With Gyorko and Amarista now potentially ahead of him, Galvez’ future lacks clarity at this point.  ETA: 2014

12) Edinson Rincon – Like several others, the Padres elected for an aggressive assignment for Rincon in 2012.  Although he struggled for much of the first half, Rincon has come on strong since the All Star break and has absolutely dominated left-handed pitching all season.  He’s spent most of the season in left field thus far with mixed results but the organization seems set on letting him learn on the job for as long as it takes.  ETA: Late 2013

13) Adys Portillo – Portillo’s production in 2012 has been incredible as he led the Midwest League in ERA before earning a promotion to Double-A San Antonio.  While his command and control are far from even average, Portillo has an incredible arm and physical frame that allows him to reach into the upper 90s when he needs it.  ETA: Late 2014

14) Donavan Tate – 2012 marks the first time Tate has been able to stay healthy for the majority of the season and he’s continued to show elite-level tools even if the offensive production has not followed.  Tate was granted a surprise promotion given his .547 OPS in Low A, but continues to show a solid approach that has oddly left his primary skills behind his secondaries.  ETA: 2015

15) Zach Eflin – Eflin was selected by the Padres in the 2012 MLB Draft and has already impressed with his big fastball and advanced changeup.  The Midwest League should be a great test for Eflin in 2013.  ETA: 2015

16) Jace Peterson – We gave Peterson an aggressive ranking in the previous Top 25 that he has definitely lived up to this season.  Peterson is a fantastic athlete that is still learning the game but at 22 years old he needs to get moving if he’s going to make a difference in San Diego one day.  ETA: Late 2014

17) Walker Weickel – Weickel was taken by the Padres in the 2012 MLB Draft and boasts premier potential if it all comes together.  Expect to see him in Fort Wayne to start 2012.  ETA: 2016

18) Donn Roach – The Padres received Roach along with Amarista in the trade that sent reliever Ernesto Frieri to the Angels.  Roach is an elite sinker baller that is light on secondaries.  His two seamer alone may get him to San Diego but he’ll need to refine his off-speed offerings to stick in the rotation long term.  ETA: 2014

19) Cody Hebner – Hebner has been a personal favorite for quite some time for his mix of stuff and demeanor on the mound.  He’s got a big arm and a fastball that has touched the upper 90s in short outings.  ETA: 2015

20) Blake Tekotte – Tekotte remains an extremely interesting power/speed option in the outfield, but injuries have limited his availability this season.  He can provide a lot of value as a bench player to a contending team as Tekotte is able to play all three outfield spots.  ETA: 2012

21) James Darnell – Darnell’s season was cut short due to a severe shoulder injury, but it allowed him to keep his rookie status and earn a spot on this list.  His ceiling is still as a fourth outfielder, but his bat is solid enough to justify a roster spot.  ETA: 2012

22) Rodney Daal – Daal is a 2011 bonus baby out of the Netherlands who has a great shot at being an offensive catcher.  He’s still a long way off but Daal’s approach and power potential are causing a lot of excitement.  ETA: 2016

23) Jaff Decker – Decker has just about fallen off the prospect map after a few consecutive years of poor production.  He gets somewhat of a pass this year because of injuries, but it looks less and less likely that he will be an everyday outfielder.  ETA: Late 2013

24) Rico Noel – Noel is extremely intriguing as he has shown a great deal of success in his first year as a switch hitter.  He plays great defense in center and has elite base running ability but there is some concern the bat can be knocked out of his hands.  ETA: Late 2014

25) Henry Charles – Charles has tools to dream on and has performed admirably in his first season stateside but is still a long way off.  He was slotted here as a name to keep an eye on if you’re looking for a potential breakout stud in the coming years.  ETA: 2016

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

The post Top 25 Padres Prospects – Midseason 2012 appeared first on Padres Prospects.

Injuries have become the calling card of 2012 on both the MLB and MiLB sides with 13 prospects from our Preseason Top 25 spending time on the disabled list.  Luckily, few of those seem very serious but the Padres seem set on letting guys like Joe Ross, Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland take a very slow road back to live action.

Tucson Padres

Position prospects on the Tucson Padres shined offensively with Yasmani Grandal (.335/.443/.521) and the early-season promotion Jedd Gyorko (.341/.383/.592) leading the way.  Grandal has hit his way into an extended look in San Diego replacing a slumping Nick Hundley and Gyorko is expected to join him sometime in the near future.

The premium Triple-A pitching duo of Wieland and Kelly were off to great starts until both succumbed to arm injuries, but they are expected back in the second half and should make cameos in San Diego at some point in 2012.  Reliever Brad Boxberger struggled with his control, but his 13.0 K/9 rate and zero home runs allowed in 25 innings show his stuff is still there, while fellow bullpen arm Miles Mikolas spent more time with the big league club than in Tucson in the first half.

San Antonio Missions

Moving down a level we’ve seen a much different San Antonio Mission club this season as the experienced players of the past have been replaced by guys like Rincon, Jeudy Valdez and Jonathan Galvez who are still figuring out their game on both sides of the ball.  Galvez had the best hitting stretch of his career (.337/.419/.535) after coming off the DL and Rincon looked better than his performance (.257/.287/.353) without even considering he missed most of last year due to injury and is learning a new position on the fly.

It’s been a rough 12 months for Jason Hagerty as he’s gone from a legitimate option for the Padres’ future at catcher to fourth or fifth on the organizational talent depth chart at the position.  Hagerty’s production (.244/.340/.354) hasn’t helped things, but he too has battled through injuries all season.

The scouting reports on Sampson coming out of the Texas League are far more impressive than his performance would show.  This season Sampson’s repertoire has included a much better curveball than he had shown in the past to go along with his plus fastball and plus changeup.  Unfortunately Sampson’s control has eluded him at times, which led to a career high 5.5 BB/9 rate.  Still, he took a no hitter past the fifth inning twice in the first half after skipping High A entirely.

Juan Oramas struggled with his pitch location until it was finally announced that he would require season-ending elbow surgery.  Once considered a favorite to contribute in San Diego this season, the Padres now just have to hope Oramas can regain his above average control after missing a year.

Erlin had been a bit more wild than usual before he was shut down with an arm injury, but he also flashed a few pitches with a bit more bite than they had last season.  Erlin is expected back within the month.

Jeff Ibarra continues to be an interesting name to watch.  While he’s likely nothing more than a LOOGY in the majors, Ibarra absolutely dominated lefties in the first half (13 strikeouts and just six base runners in 11.1 innings) making him a guy who can contribute sooner rather than later.

Lake Elsinore Storm

The Lake Elsinore Storm had an up and down first half as a team, but managed to compete for the first half league title down to the final game.  Rico Noel set the pace for the offense (.308/.375/.340) and was second behind Billy Hamilton in all of professional baseball with 55 steals.  Noel is in his first year as a switch hitter makings his results all that more impressive.  Still, if he wants to cement his name in the Padres’ future the extra base hits need to come along at some point.

Rymer Liriano scuffled his way through the first month of the season but came on strong to finish his first half and time in High-A with a .298/.360/.443 line.  His 22 doubles and 22 steals ranked in the Top 10 in the league.  Even early in the season there was never a doubt about Liriano’s skills, simply an often-scene case of a young player trying to live up to expectations rather than just playing baseball.

2011 first-round pick Cory Spangenberg has found success after an aggressive assignment out of Spring Training.  His .721 OPS in the first half of the season won’t turn any heads in the hitter-friendly league, but at just 21 years old Spangenberg is well in line with the development curve.

Casey McElroy is a recent addition to the roster, but with 20 hits in 39 at bats he’s definitely making himself known in the Cal League.

Widely picked as a breakout candidate this year (whoops), Luis Domoromo has been a bit of a disappointment thus far.  Statistically it’s tough to find anything positive in his .206/.247/.243 line, but Domoromo will still turn heads in batting practice and doesn’t appear to be physically over matched by the older competition league wide.

Matt Andriese was the staff ace in the first half for the Storm, posting a 3.39 ERA in 66.1 innings.  Andriese features a power sinker and two developing off-speed offerings in his arsenal.  Burch Smith has translated nicely as a fly ball power pitcher in the Cal League.  Smith will sit in the low 90s with his fastball and throw a solid low-80s changeup.  While he has given up 11 home runs, Smith has shown great control (1.3 BB/9) and nasty stuff (9.8 K/9).

Donn Roach was a welcome addition to the Lake Elsinore starting staff after coming over in the Ernesto Frieri trade along with Alexi Amarista.  Roach posted a 1.74 ERA in 46.2 innings while striking out 44 hitters.  His sinker was called the best pitch in the entire league by evaluators this season, which was reflected in his ridiculous 3.73 groundball to fly ball rate.  Roach’s off speed pitches lack much bite or refinement leaving his future projection still at back-end starter or quality bullpen arm even with his supreme success this season.

Kevin Quackenbush continued his domination of professional baseball (0.91 ERA in 29.2 innings pitched) and is likely not long for the level.  Age is definitely a factor with Quackenbush, both in discounting his performance an appropriate amount and realizing his need to quickly advance through the organization.

Fort Wayne Tincaps

Our preseason pick as the team to watch in 2012, the Fort Wayne Tincaps went through their fair share of growing pains in the first half.  Jace Peterson firmly planted himself on the prospect map with a .277/.371/.416 line to go along with his 25 steals in just 29 attempts.  More impressively he struck out just 30 times in 52 games.  Peterson’s defense continues to come along as he’ll flash above average abilities but has not been able to put together the entire package quite yet.

Austin Hedges received an aggressive promotion to start his first full season but more than held his own before being named a mid-season All Star in the Midwest League.  Hedges’ .274/.337/.506 line was a pleasant surprise to go along with his elite-level defense.

Yeison Asencio (formerly Yoan Alcatara) was a late addition to the Tincaps’ roster, but his .333/.369/.539 line more than made up for lost time.  The offseason name change and instant maturity that goes with aging two years in a day hasn’t helped Asencio’s patience at the plate, so he’s going to have to continue to hit line drives in every at bat to be useful.

Two of the bigger disappointments during the first half were Duanel Jones and Donavan Tate.  (Quick disclaimer: by disappointments we mean they didn’t perform to the lofty expectations their tools deserve, not that this year has been a failure.)  Jones scuffled at the plate and with the glove to the tune of a .214 batting average and 23 errors while Tate managed to hit just .207 with 62 strikeouts in 52 games.

Any mention of the Tincaps’ pitching staff has to begin with Adys Portillo.  Long considered a thrower with an electric arm, Portillo has finally started to show refinement in his third trip through the Midwest League.  His league-leading 1.92 ERA in the first half was complimented by the fact that Portillo allowed just 40 hits in 65.2 innings pitched.  He still has a long way to go as Portillo is still mostly getting by with his plus, plus fastball, but for the first time in years there is real reason to believe his future may be in the starting rotation.

Frank Garces was one of many pleasant surprises in the first half of the season, posting a 2.88 ERA in 65.2 innings while striking out 64 batters.  Garces had never pitched in the states before this year but turned heads in 2011 Dominican Southern Summer League action when he struck out 115 batters in just 71.2 innings.

Yet another quality performer for the Padres’ Low-A affiliate was Cody Hebner.  The 2011 draftee showed great poise on the mound and better use of his off speed pitches than many had seen from him before.  Hebner’s rotation mate Colin Rea saw great production in the first half of the season as well, posting a 2.61 ERA in 51.2 innings split between the bullpen and rotation.  There is still a decent amount of skepticism as to whether Rea ultimately has swing-and-miss stuff, but nothing speaks louder than production.

Quietly, Matt Wisler may have put together one of the more impressive campaigns of the bunch.  The 2011 eighth-round pick struck out 55 in his 61.2 innings of work while posting a 2.34 ERA.  Wisler was drafted as a high school projection arm but has shown enough current ability at a young enough age to earn very favorable future projections.  Evaluators love the way he has battled through this season and seemed unfazed while pitching in his own backyard as a Bryan, Ohio native in the Midwest League.

Ross’ supreme upside wasn’t enough to make him bulletproof in his first extended professional stretch.  While Ross showed the great stuff that projects him to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, his results were extremely inconsistent before the Padres elected to sit him down after Ross experienced shoulder discomfort.  He’s expected to be back in Fort Wayne within the month as well.

Matt Stites was the anchor of the Tincaps’ bullpen in the Quackenbush mold, posting a 0.89 ERA in 20.1 innings while striking out 27 and walking none.  Stites is a converted college starter that could move quickly through the organization if his off speed stuff can catch up to his advanced fastball.

MLB Draft

With less than two weeks left before the MLB Draft signing deadline, the Padres still have six picks with ongoing negotiations.  The good news is that San Diego has been able to bank approximately $1.2 million in their total draft pool by coming in under assigned slots for 11 of their 13 signed picks in the first 10 rounds.  The top name that still remains unsigned is sandwich pick Walker Weickel, but he’s expected to sign well before the July 13 deadline.  The one name that seems almost guaranteed to go unsigned is 40^th-rounder Terrance Owens out of Toledo.  Owens was selected by the Padres merely as a way to see if he had any interest in baseball as Owens is currently slated to be the starting quarterback for the Mud Hens Rockets this fall.

If you missed our draft coverage you can read scouting reports and watch video on Max Fried, Zach Eflin, Travis Jankowski and Walker Weickel.

The post Padres Prospects First Half Review appeared first on Padres Prospects.

Belen features a short swing not often seen in players his own age or experience level and projects to hit for average and power down the road.  Defensively, the evaluations of Belen range from above average potential to near guarantees he’ll move off the position.  Belen does feature above average arm strength but his footwork and instincts at the position are very much on the raw end – even for a 16-year-old prospect. 

ESPN’s Enrique Rojas seems to have the highest opinion of Belen among industry experts, citing evaluators who see Belen as a supreme two-way talent in the mold of Adrian Beltre.  While that seems quite bullish based off other aggregate reports, there’s no question the Padres are believers in Belen’s upside if they’re willing to risk a third of their entire spending budget for the year.

One interesting aspect to Belen’s game is the fact that he’s one of the few top international talents that has played in games leading up to the signing period.  This situation is unique as most players choose to simply take batting practice and go through simple fielding drills once they are considered a top player in the market.  Further, Belen has not only played in these games but also excelled offensively.

While this uniqueness does not guarantee any sort of future success, it does likely give the Padres a bit more confidence in their investment.  The contract that Belen signs this year begins in 2013, but he’ll train at one of the Padres’ complexes until then.  Depending on his progression a Dominican Southern Summer League debut is likely with an outside shot at seeing Arizona League action at some point next season.

The post Padres Sign Dominican Third Baseman Carlos Belen appeared first on Padres Prospects.

What would your Top 10 in the system look like after the draft? – Steve

Assuming all the main guys sign, and keeping in mind that I reserve the right to change this later:

1)    Yasmani Grandal
2)    Rymer Liriano
3)    Keyvius Sampson
4)    Joe Ross
5)    Austin Hedges
6)    Robbie Erlin
7)    Max Fried
8)    Casey Kelly
9)    Jedd Gyorko
10) Cory Spangenberg

Joe Wieland and Yonder Alonso were not considered.

Wow, that was way tougher than I expected.  I feel like there’s little argument with the first two, but if you told me you thought Ross, Hedges, Gyorko or even Kelly was number three I wouldn’t think you’re crazy.  The system is crazy deep and talented.

What is it about Ross that caused you to rank him behind Fried in a draft-night tweet? – Eric

Interestingly enough these pitches are surprisingly similar.  Both feature fastballs with great life, changeups that they can use effectively to both left-handed and right-handed batters, and advanced curveballs that show good shape and consistency.

Although you’d typically give the advantage to a lefty when comparing similar pitchers, Ross gets the nod here due to his impressive fastball velocity.  He’ll typically work 92-95 where as Fried will sit in the 89-92 range.

Can you give a quick scouting report on the top three pitchers the Padres took? – Stephanie

Rather than rehashing site content I’ll just point you to the scouting report of Max Fried and the scouting reports for Zach Eflin and Walker Weickel.

What did you think of the Padres’ draft overall? – Jack

Obviously it’s way too soon to have a definitive opinion on any of the players, but I do think Padres fans should be encouraged by the approach that Chad MacDonald, Jaron Madison and Co continue to take.  It’s an overall blend of upside and signability which the front office hopes will lead to more signed picks and more talent in the organization.

How would you compare this draft class to last years? – Rick

While the Padres did some great things in the draft, there isn’t much of a comparison here.  The 2011 draft is considered one of the most impressive classes in draft history with its combination of star power and depth.  Still, due to injuries and millions of other unpredictable factors you just never know how a class has turned out until four to five years down the road.

I was curious how the sorting process works; who is assigned to Eugene, who goes to extended spring training, and who might make the jump to Ft. Wayne?  Also, is this time frame an opportunity for the front office to send struggling players at Ft. Wayne down? – Shane

Just a quick clarification: Extended Spring Training ended this last week.  Short season leagues are starting next week so players will be assigned to one of those affiliates.

It’s a mix of feel from Randy Smith and his team and overall organizational depth.  For instance, they may believe Travis Jankowski can hold his own in Lake Elsinore right now, but does he deserve playing time over one of Everett Williams, Rymer Liriano, Rico Noel or Luis Domoromo?  Those are four guys that have shown production and climbed their way up the organization.

One thing that will be interesting to see is how much Fried, Eflin and Weickel will pitch this year assuming they sign.  Fried has had a really long year and may just get a quick taste of professional baseball (a la Ross’ quick appearance in 2011 to get his feet wet).  Eflin was injured for a good chunk of the season, but does that mean he has a fresh arm or that the Padres would rather be cautious with him and focus more on adding strength in bullpens.  Weickel pitched all season long, but the organization may want to focus on sharpening his arsenal before starting his career rather than just letting him run out against better competition.

Most of the guys who may not have been ready for Fort Wayne we’ve already seen shipped up and down.  Corey Adamson, Kyung-Min Na, Alberth Martinez and Mykal Stokes will all likely continue to float around.

How many players on average do teams pick up after the draft? – Jeremy

It really depends on how many draft picks sign and total injuries throughout the organization.  The draft this year was shortened to 40 rounds, which probably means we’ll see more NDFAs than usual.

Did the Padres take anybody interesting after the first few rounds? – Oscar

Fernando Perez was a third rounder, but I think he’s worth mentioning here.  Although he was drafted out of Junior College Perez is the same age as most high school seniors.  He isn’t a shortstop, but Perez may be able to hit enough to stick as an everyday third baseman.

Roman Madrid is an interesting name in the Kevin Quackenbush mold of a college reliever who could dominate inexperienced hitters and move fast.  Madrid’s game revolves around throwing strikes with a fastball-slider combination that should allow him to be a late-inning reliever in the minors.

Andrew Sopko didn’t have a high school team but has shown a decent feel for pitching for his experience level.  His three-pitch arsenal is all projection at this point but he’d be an interesting guy if the Padres can ink him to a deal.

Kevin McCanna is an extremely polished high school pitcher with a fastball, slider and changeup arsenal that could start in the low minors now.  McCanna has a limited ceiling, which may preclude the Padres from meeting his perceived bonus demands.

The post Padres Prospect Mailbag: 2012 MLB Draft Edition appeared first on Padres Prospects.

This year Chad MacDonald, Jaron Madison and Co. are putting their reputations on the line with a $9.9 million budget in their back pocket.  So what does just under 10 million dollars buy you these days?

To lead things off the Padres drafted Max Fried at seven.

San Diego’s next selection was right-handed pitcher Zach Eflin at 33.  Eflin was ranked 31^st on Baseball America’s Top 500, 26^th in Baseball Prospectus’ Top 30 and 14^th on ESPN’s Top 100.

Eflin is a 6-foot-5, 205-pound pitcher out of Hagerty High School in Florida.  His velocity ticked up this spring to the mid-90s and there is a chance that he has enough projectability left in his frame to see another uptick.

To go along with his already solid-average fastball, Elfin has one of the best sinking changeups in the draft – not just among the high school ranks – that he’s comfortable throwing in any count.  Eflin completes his arsenal with a big spike curveball that the Padres may elect to ditch in favor of a power slider.

His main red flag is an inconsistent delivery that often leaves his arm well behind his body.  This is typically a leading factor in arm problems, which Eflin did in fact battle this spring in the form of bicep tendinitis.  An MRI on his elbow came back clean and it’s clear the Padres are comfortable enough with his medicals that they’re willing to commit over $1.5 million to him.

That delivery features a pretty easy windup but Eflin struggles to keep his weight balanced on the rubber – causing his arm to trail as mentioned above.  Eflin’s legs look long and powerful leading many to believe he should be able to maintain his velocity deep into games.

Eflin has the potential to have two or three plus pitches which gives him Number 2 upside if his development goes smoothly.  He has very strong family ties to Florida and the University of Central Florida where he is committed, but the Padres should have a good shot at getting him for slot money.

Here is MLB.com’s feature video on Eflin:

And here’s a video from Diamond Scape Scounting:

Travis Jankowski was the Padres next pick at 44.  Jankowski was ranked 68^th on Baseball America’s Top 500 and 57^th on ESPN’s Top 100.

Jankowski gained a lot of helium this spring with his play at Stony Brook University and in the Cape Cod League.  He shows elite athleticism in center field that utilizes his plus-plus speed to cover more range than the average outfielder.  Jankowski’s arm is just average in center, but it’s enough to keep him there.

Offensively, Jankowski shows good bat speed but poor fundamentals.  His hands are extremely active in his load leading to well-below average current power.  After the Padres were able to completely overhaul Jace Peterson’s swing in a matter of weeks last year you have to give them the benefit of the doubt that they’ll be able to smooth out Jankowski’s mechanics.

Scouts who believe in him see the possibility of average power down the line if Jankowski can fix his swing issues, which would project him as an above-average regular in center field.

As a college draftee Jankowski holds little leverage in contract negotiations and should sign for slot money ($1,165,800) or less.

Here’s a video of Jankowski from Baseball America:

Here’s another video from Perfect Game:

Walker Weickel was the Padres final pick on Day 1 of the draft.  Weickel was ranked 37^th on Baseball America’s Top 500 and 29^th on ESPN’s Top 100.

Weickel has a ton of USA Baseball experience and went undefeated for his high school team this season.  Weickel’s 6-foot-6, 200-pound frame looks impressive as he stands on the first-base side of the pitching rubber and helps him generate great downward plane on his pitches.

Weickel will mostly work in the low-90s at the moment but he has a shot at adding a few miles per hour to his fastball as his frame continues to fill out.  His curveball is currently his best pitch as it shows great shape and overall consistency that is rarely seen at the high school level.  Weickel completes his arsenal with a quality changeup with solid sink.

Weickel’s stuff isn’t overpowering, leaving his ceiling around mid-rotation starter.  But, his present stuff, polish and makeup is good enough that it’s easy to see him as a high-floor guy even as a high schooler.

Weickel’s delivery is effortless with a clean arm action.  At the Perfect Game Classic (see video below) he featured a jerky windup that could potentially hurt his timing, but he doesn’t show any major flaws in delivering a pitch.  The Padres will likely try to make him a little more aggressive to the plate which should help sharpen his arsenal a bit as well.

Here is a video from the Perfect Game Classic:

And here’s a video from Diamond Scape Scounting:

The post Padres Grab Eflin, Jankowski and Weickel in Draft’s Supplemental Round appeared first on Padres Prospects.

Fried is a Southern California native who was considered by many to be the top high school pitcher in the entire draft.

His arsenal is led by a fastball that sits in the upper 80s to lower 90s with arm-side run, but Fried has shown the ability to hit 95 at times when he needs it.  Fried’s changeup is a work in progress but some see it has his best offering in the future as he already shows great arm speed and more run than fade with the pitch.  Fried has a curveball that will sit in the mid-70s with sharp downward break that some evaluators see as a potential 70 pitch if he’s able to remain consistent with the offering.

As expected out of a top high school pitcher Fried’s feel for pitching is off the charts for his experience level.  That helps give him fringe-average current command and control.

Fried is a fantastic athlete and is able to work his 6’3” 170lb frame into a repeatable delivery.  That delivery is very quiet and very smooth.  Fried works a nice stride with solid toe drag into an on-line foot plant that allows his arm to keep up with his body and come through cleanly.  There is little effort shown in Fried’s delivery, which should allow Padres coaches to focus on refining his offerings rather than rebuilding his technique.

While Fried is a high schooler there is a prevalent notion that he can be a relatively fast mover in pro ball.  Fried pitched through the winter, led his high school team as the staff ace all season and pitched well into the state playoffs meaning that an aggressive pitching schedule in 2012 seems unlikely.

Fried, who turned 18 in January, went 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA and 105 strikeouts against 29 walks and 43 hits allowed in 66 innings during his senior season.

Fried has demonstrated that he is motivated to play professional baseball right away, even with his strong UCLA commitment so seeing him sign before the mid-July deadline is not out of the question.  Slot for this selection is $3 million.  Fried will likely seek the entire sum, but I would not be surprised to see learn the Padres negotiated him down to the $2.5 million range.

Here is our exclusive video of Fried:

One from Bullpen Banter:

And another from Bullpen Banter:

The post Padres Grab Max Fried with 2012 First Round Draft Pick appeared first on Padres Prospects.