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Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Cody Hebner, RHP

Posted by Ryan in Eugene Emeralds | Scouting Reports - (0 Comments)

Name: Cody Hebner
Report Date: 2011 NWL Season (Rookie Level)
Age: 20
Birthplace: Auburn, WA
Height: 5’11
Weight: 175
Bats: R
Throws: R

Overview: Hebner was the Padres’ 4th-round pick in the 2011 Rule IV Draft. He is undersized compared to an average pitcher’s frame, which may have hurt his draft status. He is a student of the game who treats pitching as a science and does everything from an elaborate warm up routine to intense video analysis of his delivery after the game.

Physical Attributes: As mentioned above, the first thing that you notice about Hebner is that he is actually 5’11” and 175 pounds. Diminutive though he is, he is very athletic. This is apparent from Hebner’s delivery to how he carries himself off the field. He could add some weight to his athletic frame, but nothing more than 10-15 pounds. It’s easy to imagine that if Hebner were 6’3” he would be generating much more buzz.

Delivery: Hebner is fun to watch. In the age of cookie-cutter mechanics he breaks the mold. He has a big leg kick and turns his body enough during his delivery that his numbers are clearly visible to the batter. Hebner uses a long stride to help get everything out of his 5’11 frame. He has great pace throughout his delivery, never rushing and keeping his body in sync. Even though there are a lot of moving parts to the delivery, it is all done in a very smooth and controlled fashion. While there is some effort in the delivery, it is far from a max effort situation like you’d see in most undersized pitchers.  Hebner has great arm action; long, loose and repeatable all from a high 3/4 arm slot. The delivery is deceptive, and compounding this deception is the fact that he keeps the same arm action for all four pitches. Because his arm action is so consistent, Hebner is exceptional at keeping hitters off balanced.

 The Stuff (more…)

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Padres Organizational Audit: Catcher

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Organizational Audit | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (1 Comments)

Over the next few weeks we’ll be taking a look at how the Padres’ organizational talent stacks up position-by-position.  Anyone included on a roster of any of the US affiliates will be listed.  Be sure to check out the entire Organizational Audit series.

Major League Situation -

Nick Hundley

Hundley is having a very nice season as the Padres’ primary catcher this year.  He’s had two stretches in 2011 that have elevated his offensive numbers to respectable levels – .292/.352/.472 in 298 plate appearances – but injuries have once again taken a toll on the 28-year-old backstop.  While there are some in the organization who believe he is a legitimate everyday option – including his manager – Hundley is yet to show he can stay healthy and effective for an entire season.

Luis Martinez

Martinez looked like more than an org player in the minors, but never developed enough to be considered a great prospect.  With his skill set he has the ability to be a decent backup catcher for the foreseeable future.

Top Prospect -

Austin Hedges

Anyone who is even slightly interested in Padres prospects knows who Hedges is.  Although he is just 19, Hedges has captured the attention of many San Diegans and Padres fans abroad with his strong defensive abilities and offensive potential.  With just 34 plate appearances in professional baseball to his name, Hedges is still a long way off but his ceiling is among the highest in the organization.

The Rest – (more…)

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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Post Season 2011

Posted by Jeff in Scouting Reports - (12 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must be currently in the minors or temporarily filling a roster spot on the Major League club.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  Estimated Time of Arrival, ETA, for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.  If you disagree with a ranking or an evaluation that is fine.  You could ask 10 experts to submit a list of top prospects and no two would be the same.  Disparity among the evaluations is what makes them interesting!

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message.

1) Keyvius Sampson – Sampson had the most dominant season of any starting-pitching prospect in the Padres’ system.  In his age-20 season, Sampson struck out just under 11 batters per nine while allowing just 81 hits in 118 innings pitched.  The control still needs fine tuning – 3.7 BB/9 – but with the amount of production he is providing at such a young age you’ll take a rough area to his game.  ETA: Late 2013

2) Rymer Liriano – If Liriano played center field he would be considered a legit five-tool future star.  With 20/20 projections placed on his power and speed combined with a plus arm and a hit tool that grades out to at least average, Liriano provides the Padres with a right fielder of the future to dream on.  ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015

3) Robbie Erlin – A 1.38 ERA and 10.7 K/9 rate in 26 innings after joining the Padres’ organization showed what Erlin is capable of accomplishing when left alone to pitch.  He made 16 starts – and 17 appearances – in Double-A this season, but likely will be assigned to San Antonio in 2012 because of the hitting environment in Tucson.  ETA: Late 2012

4) Austin Hedges – Hedges is the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2011 draft class that cost the organization a cool $11,020,600.  While most see him as a defense-first catcher with a passable bat, Hedges has the ability to be much more than that if given the time to develop.  Catchers with an All Star ceiling don’t come around too often so expect the Padres to put a lot of time into Hedges.  ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015

5) Casey Kelly – Many are quick to judge that 2011 was a disappointing year for Kelly.  While the home/road splits are concerning, when you dive deeper you see that luck can go a long way in explaining why his box score numbers don’t look great: (BABIP – HR/FB – K/BB – FIP) Home – .269 – 7.3% – 2.25 – 3.68 Road .378 – 7.7% – 2.31 – 3.52.  ETA: 2013 (more…)

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Crowd Sourcing: YOUR Top 5 Padres Prospects

Posted by Jeff in Croud Sourcing | Player Update - (6 Comments)

In preparation for an update to the official Padres Prospects Top 25, we’d like to invite you our readers to vote on your Top 5 Padres Prospects.  We are going to start with a vote on the top prospect in the organization, then move on to the second best and so on.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments if you feel like you want to persuade everyone into your line of thinking that Casey McElroy is the top prospect in the org, or that Ruben Mejia is a sleeping giant.

Simple enough?

Results:

1) Rymer Liriano – 35% of the vote
2) Keyvius Sampson – 34% of the vote
3) Robbie Erlin – 50% of the vote
4) Cory Spangenberg – 33% of the vote
5) Casey Kelly – 30% of the vote

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Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Duanel Jones, 3B

Posted by Ryan in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Scouting Reports - (0 Comments)

Name: Duanel Jones
Report Date: 2011 NWL Season (Rookie Level)
Age: 18
Birthplace: Samana, DO
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 205
Bats: R
Throws: R

Overview: Duanel Jones is a big-bodied athlete who starts off like every good steak, extremely raw. There is a huge gap in the player Jones is now and the player he may one day become. Currently he is playing third base but it is highly likely that a move to first base or an outfield corner is in his future.

Physical Attributes: Jones is one big athlete. He has very long arms, a wider-than-average build and big legs. He is by no means fat. If Jones wants to stay at a position with a defensive component he needs to keep from gaining any amount of weight. If he moves to first base he could easily put on 15-20 lbs and not be any worse for it. He has a great arm and great bat speed. His arm is so good that it has allowed him to stay at third despite limited range. His swing is very raw but his bat speed has given the Padres something to dream on.

Hitting: Jones hits from an open, upright stance with some bend in his knees and low hands. He uses a double tap approach. Meaning he brings his foot towards his body on the load, taps, and then strides. He slots his hands well on his load. Because there is so much movement in this style of loading, Jones often has an inconsistent pace with his swing. Sometimes he looks slow and relaxed and other times he has to rush to get everything lined up for his swing. Jones also turns his front shoulder in during his load more than you would like to see. It creates a situation where his shoulders aren’t directly lined up with the pitcher and instead are lined up somewhere between the pitcher and first base. The problem with this movement is it has a tendency to make hitters really uncoil on their swing leading to their front shoulder flying open which is exactly what Jones does.

When the swing gets going the bat speed is undeniable. There is a lot of effort in generating this bat speed so it tends not be pretty when Jones swings and misses. He often ends up off balance following his vicious swing. He has a good plane through the zone with some lift but doesn’t extend as well as his body would allow him too. His lower half fires very aggressively but does so in a very rotational fashion. Combine this with his less than ideal extension and you can imagine why Jones has trouble with pitches on the outer third of the plate.

At this point Jones is basically a pull side hitter. On pitches away, particularly off-speed offerings, Jones will simply beat the ball into the ground to the left side. Once he finds some balance in his swing, irons out his load and generates some extension Jones will begin to hit for a better average. He will never be a player who grades out very highly on his hit tool but there is still plenty of room for improvement from his current state. Current – 30 | Future – 45 (more…)

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2011 Padres Prospects Post Season All Star Team

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Scouting Reports | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Catcher – Jason Hagerty

After a breakout 2010 campaign that saw Hagerty’s presence atop a few notable Padres Top Prospect lists – 12 at Baseball Prospects, 10 at Baseball America – he did little to upset San Diego fans with a .311/.386/.518 triple slash in 68 games with the Lake Elsinore Storm.  While he did struggle during most of his time in San Antonio, Hagerty continued to show solid secondary skills and improvements on the defensive end.

G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
104 443 68 110 31 3 9 65 3 3 40 102 .284 .363 .450 .812

First Base – Anthony Rizzo

Pacific Coast League aided or not, Rizzo had an amazing offensive season in 2011.  While his early-season cup of coffee with the Padres disappointed many, Rizzo did a lot this year to prove that he has fully recovered from the chemotherapy treatments that caused him to miss chunks of 2008 and 2009.  Rizzo finished sixth in the PCL in RBI and eighth in home runs while playing around 30-40 games less than the rest of his competition.  In addition, the 22-year-old lefty finished second in the league with a 1.056 OPS.

G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
93 413 64 118 34 1 26 101 7 6 43 89 .331 .404 .652 1.056

Honorable Mention: Connor Powers

Second Base – Vincent Belnome (more…)

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Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: September 2, 2011

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | Prospect Rap Sheet | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Star Performer:

Yoan Alcantara, OF (AZL Padres) – Alcantara went on a complete tear to end the season.  Although he missed a few games after being hit by a pitch, Alcantara lit up AZL pitching in August to the tune of a .377/.415/.766 slash line that included two doubles, five triples and six home runs.  He came to the Padres in 2009 as an international free agent, signing for a $135,000 bonus.  Alcantara is a good athlete who runs well and projects to play above average defense.  As evident by his four walks and 25 strikeouts in 50 games his approach lacks must polish, but the Padres are very high on Alcantara’s offensive ceiling if he is able to learn how to work counts and compete against more advanced pitching.

Rock Steady:

Cory Spangenberg, 2B (Low-A Fort Wayne) – After being last week’s Star Performer, Spangenberg did little this week to diminish his growing prospect status and finished August very strong.  If you are looking for a yellow light to shine on some aspect of his game the 14 strikeouts in 10 games are a sure sign of growing pains.  One aspect that may have been underrated in pre-draft scouting reports about Spangenberg is his base stealing ability.  Through 68 professional games he has stolen 24 bases, including seven in a row.

Casey McElroy, Middle INF (Short Season Eugene Emeralds) – McElroy was a late addition to the Emeralds roster after gaining a mid-August promotion.  In his 17 games with the EMs, McElroy is hitting .313 with six doubles and two home runs.  He is a polished college hitter who fell to the Padres in the 11th round of this year’s draft with many teams nervous about his 5’8” frame.

Jeudy Valdez, SS (High-A Lake Elsinore) – .327/.383/.522 in 29 August games leaves him with little left to prove this season in the California League.  With Beemer Weems possibly fixed at shortstop again next year in San Antonio Valdez may be moved to another position as his glove still leaves much to be desired.

Tommy Medica, 1B (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Giving some credit where it is due, Medica is having a great season offensively: .292/.408/.486.  While he may not have the tools to project as an everyday player on a contending team, Medica is showing that there is life in his bat.

Keyvius Sampson, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Before giving up six runs in Wednesday’s start, Sampson was primed to finish up an astonishing two month run that would have seen him pitch about 50 innings while allowing just six earned runs, about 30 hits and striking out over 60 batters.  Unfortunately the South Bend team that he had dominated just six days earlier would not be overmatched again, knocking Sampson out of the game after just 2.1 innings. (more…)

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Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Donavan Tate, CF

Posted by Ryan in Eugene Emeralds | Scouting Reports - (7 Comments)

Name: Donavan Tate
Report Date: 2011 NWL Season (Rookie Level)
Age: 20
Birthplace: Cartersville, GA
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 200
Bats: R
Throws: R

Overview: As the 3rd overall draft pick in 2009 – and recipient of a club-record $6.25 mil bonus – Tate has been the source of much frustration for the Padres and those who follow the team. The tools are all there for this young man to be an impact player, but a rash of injuries and off-the-field issues have hampered his development. This is the classic toolsy, high risk, high ceiling player that has just as great of a chance of making the majors as he does burning out in the low minors.

Physical Attributes: Tate is a supreme athlete and his body reflects this.  He has a swimmer-like build with long arms and legs that show room for excellent growth on his frame in the future. He has incredible bat speed that is head and shoulders above just about every other player in the Northwest League. The phrase “runs like a gazelle” comes to mind when he runs, as, not only is he incredibly fast, but Tate looks so relaxed and doesn’t seem to exude much effort (not a lack of effort, but his athleticism makes everything seem easy).

Hitting: When Tate was drafted, this was the aspect of his game that drew the most ire. Even though Tate possesses plus bat speed and uses his hands very well, there is still a lot of swing-and-miss to be dealt with. He does avoid some classic flaws that many minor leaguers will show. Tate is always soft on his front side, which allows him to maintain balance throughout his swing. He also keeps his front shoulder in most of the time but is still prone to letting it fly open every now and then. There is some difficulty in judging Tate as a hitter, as he changed his swing following his most recent drug-related suspension.

Before the suspension he hit with an upright stance with movement going on during his loading phase. Tate slotted his hands well by taking them slightly back during his load, which allowed him great length through the hitting zone. When he fired the swing he got excellent hip rotation. Overall this was a very loose, relaxed, and athletic looking swing. This is all apparent in the video below: (more…)

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Padres Prospet Mailbag: August Part 2

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (4 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 1 of the Mailbag.

Is Reymond Fuentes still a legit prospect? – Jonathan

Definitely.  While Fuentes’ stock has definitely slipped, he still is loaded with enough tools to be an everyday center fielder on a contending team.  It is becoming more apparent that the bat will never be anything special, but his speed definitely plays in games and – outside of this year – he has shown the ability to make consistent contact.

Unless you see a serious regression in tools, one year of production is not enough to condemn a player.  That being said, Fuentes has a lot to prove as questions surrounding his effort are growing louder and louder.

What level will Joe Ross, Michael Kelly and Austin Hedges start at next season? – Antonio

Too early to definitively say at this point.  Ross has enough stuff to compete in the Midwest League, but the Padres may elect to tinker with his delivery in the Instructional League which may have him set to begin the season in Arizona or Eugene.  Gut says they challenge him in Fort Wayne barring unforeseen circumstances.

Kelly is much more of a project at this point with only one real pitch in his repertoire.  The conservative play would be to start him in Arizona and promote Kelly if his performance validated, but at the moment I’ll say that he begins the year in Eugene with the Emeralds.

While 20 at bats with the AZL Padres is not a ton of experience, Hedges has at least shown that his bat isn’t completely overmatched by professional pitchers.  I’d expect to see him in Fort Wayne to start 2012 barring an underwhelming spring that would send him to Eugene. (more…)

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: August Part 1

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (3 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 2 of the Mailbag.

Where has Edinson Rincon been? – John

Rincon was struck by a pitch on June 25 that knocked him out of action until August 25.  He is currently rehabbing with the Padres’ Arizona League affiliate and may be a candidate for the Arizona Fall League if the Padres are concerned about getting him extra at bats before re-evaluating him in Spring Training.

It is important to remember that we may not see the normal Rincon for quite some time.  The injury he suffered – a broken Hamate bone – is known to sap a batters power severely and full recovery time for their true ability to return can be 12-18 months.  Scouts and talent evaluators love the potential that Rincon brings on offense.  He has a fluid swing that is aided by his strong wrists.  Just be prepared to possibly see a lighter-hitting Rincon than in the past.

Any thoughts on what players the Padres will send to the Arizona Fall League? – Ryan

As I mentioned above, I do believe that Rincon is a strong candidate for the AFL.

Others who could potentially make an appearance:

Simon Castro – he appeared to be on the cusp of a call up heading into the season but has experienced serious regression in his secondary offerings.  With just over 100 innings pitched on the season he has more than enough bullets left in his arm this year to pitch through the winter.

Jason Hagerty – he lacks much experience against upper-level competition so the AFL would be a great challenge for him.

Cody Decker – he missed almost three months of live action.  Now that his ankle is fully healed the Padres would like to get him as much experience as possible so that his promotion path is not delayed.  Still, even with some AFL experience another year in San Antonio is not out of the question for the undersized first baseman.

Jaff Decker – he has already surpassed his career-high in games, but with his struggles in adjusting to a new stance the Peoria native may be asked to play some extra baseball over the offseason.

Like every other team the Padres will send six players, two of which can be from lower than Double-A if the team so chooses. (more…)

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