News, analysis and scouting reports of San Diego Padres Prospects
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Padres Organizational Audit: Shortstop

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Organizational Audit | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Over the next few weeks we’ll be taking a look how the Padres’ organizational talent stacks up position-by-position.  Anyone included on a roster of any of the US affiliates will be listed.  Be sure to check out the entire Organizational Audit series.

Major League Situation –

Jason Bartlett

Bartlett was half of the duo – along with Orlando Hudson – brought in last offseason to help solidify the middle infield positions in San Diego.  After an All Star campaign in 2009 and a disappointing 2010 Bartlett scuffled with the Padres to the tune of a .245/.308/.307 slash line, making him one of the few players to have an on-base percentage higher than his slugging percentage.  The Padres have $7 million committed to Bartlett – covering his 2012-guaranteed salary and a 2013 buyout – and a $5.5 million club option for ‘13.

Alberto Gonzalez

Obtained just three days before Opening Day last March, Gonzalez offered San Diego a very versatile player who is able play average to above average defense at every infield position.  Unfortunately Gonzalez offers little with the bat – a career .262 wOBA – so all of his value lies in his defensive flexibility.  He is a second-year arbitration eligible player this offseason but shouldn’t receive a huge salary increase.

Andy Parrino

Parrino has been an invaluable asset to the Padres since coming into the organization in 2007.  In 2011 Parrino was Tucson’s shortstop and second baseman until Beemer Weems suffered a season-ending injury and Parrino was asked to be a utility player in San Antonio to hold down the defense on the prospect-rich team.  Accepting this demotion earned Parrino much praise within the organization and propelled him to a late-season cup of coffee in San Diego.  Although it was clear Parrino’s bat wasn’t ready, the patience he showed at the plate and defensive versatility in the field may have earned in him a spot on the 2012 big league roster.

Top Prospect – Continue reading “Padres Organizational Audit: Shortstop” »

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Padres Organizational Audit: Second Base

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Organizational Audit | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (2 Comments)

Over the next few weeks we’ll be taking a look how the Padres’ organizational talent stacks up position-by-position.  Anyone included on a roster of any of the US affiliates will be listed.  Be sure to check out the entire Organizational Audit series.

Major League Situation –

Orlando Hudson

Hudson has been the source of much controversy since arriving in San Diego last fall.  His lackluster season – .246/.329/.352 with seven home runs – has led to many questions as to why the organization decided to dedicate multiple years and millions of dollars to the former All Star.  With his trade value at an all-time low and another year on his contract there is little doubt that Hudson will be the Opening Day starter in 2012.

Logan Forsythe

Although he had never played second base as a professional until 2010, Forsythe has already become a passable defender and should profile to be above average with the glove with more experience.  He has always been able to draw his fair share of walks, but Forsythe’s disappearing power has been disappointing.  He can easily profile as a career utility guy because of his defense, but he’s going to have to fight tough competition as the Padres’ organization is flush with players who fit this profile.

Top Prospect – Continue reading “Padres Organizational Audit: Second Base” »

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Padres Organizational Audit: First Base

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Organizational Audit | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (5 Comments)

Over the next few weeks we’ll be taking a look how the Padres’ organizational talent stacks up position-by-position.  Anyone included on a roster of any of the US affiliates will be listed.  Be sure to check out the entire Organizational Audit series.

Major League Situation -

Jesus Guzman

Guzman could be the leader in the clubhouse headed into 2012 for better or worse.  It is no secret that he lacks the physical tools and instincts to be a great defender, but even getting by as a passable first baseman proved to be difficult.  Because of this Guzman will likely split time in left field, especially if Anthony Rizzo shows improvement from an abysmal 2011 in San Diego.  Add in the fact that Guzman was basically considered an org player prior to a .312/.369/.478 stretch in 76 games and he becomes the biggest Wild Card in town.

Kyle Blanks

While many assumed Blanks would become an everyday first baseman as his body matured, he has shown that he can play left field at least averagely.  Only 14 of his 55 appearances came at first base this year and it doesn’t sound like the organization sees a future for him at the position.  We’ll get more into Blanks’ situation in the left field edition of this series.

Top Prospect -  Continue reading “Padres Organizational Audit: First Base” »

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Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Cory Spangenberg, 2B

Posted by Ryan in Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Player Update | Scouting Reports - (0 Comments)

Name: Cory Spangenberg
Report Date: 2011 NWL Season (Rookie Level)
Age: 20
Birthplace: Clark Summit, PA
Height: 6’
Weight: 195
Bats: L
Throws: R

Overview: Cory Spangenberg was the 2011 1st-round draft pick for the Padres. Although he is not the tool-laden prototype that is typically associated with a 10th overall pick, Spangenberg is the epitome of a baseball player and gets the most out of his skills while playing the game with great instincts.

Physical Attributes: Spangenberg does not stand out physically. He blends in with those around him due to his average height and weight. Watching him in warm ups you would not know this kid is a killer baseball player. He is not lighting fast, throw terribly hard or have elite bat speed. All possible doubt in his ability is erased once Spangenberg gets on the field and allows his amazing hand-eye coordination and ability to stand out.  Once he starts to add strength, his overall value will steadily increase. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Cory Spangenberg, 2B” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: September

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Why is everybody so down on Fuentes?  He has identical numbers to last year, all be it at a higher level, when he was a key piece of the Gonzalez trade.  If he can continue to put up similar numbers in the minors and then into the Majors, he will be a prototypical player for Petco, which is what Hoyer has been looking for.  It was the kid’s first season in a new organization with a different teaching style I’m sure.  Everyone else can write this kid off, but if puts up these same numbers next year in AA I’ll be happy. – Dustin

For reference, here is Fuentes’ slash line the last two seasons:
2010 – .270/.328/.377
2011 – .275/.342/.369

The main problem here is that Fuentes went from a league that plays fairly neutral in the Sally League to the second most hitter-friendly environment in professional baseball in the California League.  The Cal League is known to inflate offensive numbers by as much as 10-15%, meaning that you really have to shave off some of Fuentes’ production to see his true performance this season.

Like I said in the August Mailbag, I still think Fuentes has the physical tools and baseball ability to be a major leaguer, but he showed inconsistent effort throughout the season leading to many question marks surrounding his game.

If Fuentes is going to bounce back in the Texas League next year – assuming he gets promoted – he is going to have to start hitting more line drives and show that he is able to make more contact in general.

I was wondering if you could give your opinion on Ross and Kelly’s high school scouting report versus Whitson’s high school report.  Specifically, where would Ross and Kelly be drafted if they were eligible for the 2010 draft? – Chris

Here are the most basic versions of scouting reports for the three pitchers:

Karsten Whitson – 3 pitches (fastball, slider and changeup) that grade out currently at solid average
Joe Ross – 2 pitches (fastball and curveball) that currently grade out at average to plus with a very under-developed changeup
Michael Kelly – 1 pitch (fastball) that grades out as solid average and a curveball that is currently a below average offering

While I think the Padres received great value with their picks this year, Ross and Kelly would both have slotted well back of Whitson if all three players were in the same draft.

If you want an overall ranking of the top high school pitchers available the last two years: Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: September” »

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Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Cody Hebner, RHP

Posted by Ryan in Eugene Emeralds | Scouting Reports - (0 Comments)

Name: Cody Hebner
Report Date: 2011 NWL Season (Rookie Level)
Age: 20
Birthplace: Auburn, WA
Height: 5’11
Weight: 175
Bats: R
Throws: R

Overview: Hebner was the Padres’ 4th-round pick in the 2011 Rule IV Draft. He is undersized compared to an average pitcher’s frame, which may have hurt his draft status. He is a student of the game who treats pitching as a science and does everything from an elaborate warm up routine to intense video analysis of his delivery after the game.

Physical Attributes: As mentioned above, the first thing that you notice about Hebner is that he is actually 5’11” and 175 pounds. Diminutive though he is, he is very athletic. This is apparent from Hebner’s delivery to how he carries himself off the field. He could add some weight to his athletic frame, but nothing more than 10-15 pounds. It’s easy to imagine that if Hebner were 6’3” he would be generating much more buzz.

Delivery: Hebner is fun to watch. In the age of cookie-cutter mechanics he breaks the mold. He has a big leg kick and turns his body enough during his delivery that his numbers are clearly visible to the batter. Hebner uses a long stride to help get everything out of his 5’11 frame. He has great pace throughout his delivery, never rushing and keeping his body in sync. Even though there are a lot of moving parts to the delivery, it is all done in a very smooth and controlled fashion. While there is some effort in the delivery, it is far from a max effort situation like you’d see in most undersized pitchers.  Hebner has great arm action; long, loose and repeatable all from a high 3/4 arm slot. The delivery is deceptive, and compounding this deception is the fact that he keeps the same arm action for all four pitches. Because his arm action is so consistent, Hebner is exceptional at keeping hitters off balanced.

 The Stuff Continue reading “Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Cody Hebner, RHP” »

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Padres Organizational Audit: Catcher

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Organizational Audit | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (1 Comments)

Over the next few weeks we’ll be taking a look at how the Padres’ organizational talent stacks up position-by-position.  Anyone included on a roster of any of the US affiliates will be listed.  Be sure to check out the entire Organizational Audit series.

Major League Situation -

Nick Hundley

Hundley is having a very nice season as the Padres’ primary catcher this year.  He’s had two stretches in 2011 that have elevated his offensive numbers to respectable levels – .292/.352/.472 in 298 plate appearances – but injuries have once again taken a toll on the 28-year-old backstop.  While there are some in the organization who believe he is a legitimate everyday option – including his manager – Hundley is yet to show he can stay healthy and effective for an entire season.

Luis Martinez

Martinez looked like more than an org player in the minors, but never developed enough to be considered a great prospect.  With his skill set he has the ability to be a decent backup catcher for the foreseeable future.

Top Prospect -

Austin Hedges

Anyone who is even slightly interested in Padres prospects knows who Hedges is.  Although he is just 19, Hedges has captured the attention of many San Diegans and Padres fans abroad with his strong defensive abilities and offensive potential.  With just 34 plate appearances in professional baseball to his name, Hedges is still a long way off but his ceiling is among the highest in the organization.

The Rest – Continue reading “Padres Organizational Audit: Catcher” »

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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Post Season 2011

Posted by Jeff in Scouting Reports - (12 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must be currently in the minors or temporarily filling a roster spot on the Major League club.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  Estimated Time of Arrival, ETA, for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.  If you disagree with a ranking or an evaluation that is fine.  You could ask 10 experts to submit a list of top prospects and no two would be the same.  Disparity among the evaluations is what makes them interesting!

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message.

1) Keyvius Sampson – Sampson had the most dominant season of any starting-pitching prospect in the Padres’ system.  In his age-20 season, Sampson struck out just under 11 batters per nine while allowing just 81 hits in 118 innings pitched.  The control still needs fine tuning – 3.7 BB/9 – but with the amount of production he is providing at such a young age you’ll take a rough area to his game.  ETA: Late 2013

2) Rymer Liriano – If Liriano played center field he would be considered a legit five-tool future star.  With 20/20 projections placed on his power and speed combined with a plus arm and a hit tool that grades out to at least average, Liriano provides the Padres with a right fielder of the future to dream on.  ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015

3) Robbie Erlin – A 1.38 ERA and 10.7 K/9 rate in 26 innings after joining the Padres’ organization showed what Erlin is capable of accomplishing when left alone to pitch.  He made 16 starts – and 17 appearances – in Double-A this season, but likely will be assigned to San Antonio in 2012 because of the hitting environment in Tucson.  ETA: Late 2012

4) Austin Hedges – Hedges is the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2011 draft class that cost the organization a cool $11,020,600.  While most see him as a defense-first catcher with a passable bat, Hedges has the ability to be much more than that if given the time to develop.  Catchers with an All Star ceiling don’t come around too often so expect the Padres to put a lot of time into Hedges.  ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015

5) Casey Kelly – Many are quick to judge that 2011 was a disappointing year for Kelly.  While the home/road splits are concerning, when you dive deeper you see that luck can go a long way in explaining why his box score numbers don’t look great: (BABIP – HR/FB – K/BB – FIP) Home – .269 – 7.3% – 2.25 – 3.68 Road .378 – 7.7% – 2.31 – 3.52.  ETA: 2013 Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Post Season 2011” »

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Crowd Sourcing: YOUR Top 5 Padres Prospects

Posted by Jeff in Croud Sourcing | Player Update - (6 Comments)

In preparation for an update to the official Padres Prospects Top 25, we’d like to invite you our readers to vote on your Top 5 Padres Prospects.  We are going to start with a vote on the top prospect in the organization, then move on to the second best and so on.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments if you feel like you want to persuade everyone into your line of thinking that Casey McElroy is the top prospect in the org, or that Ruben Mejia is a sleeping giant.

Simple enough?

Results:

1) Rymer Liriano – 35% of the vote
2) Keyvius Sampson – 34% of the vote
3) Robbie Erlin – 50% of the vote
4) Cory Spangenberg – 33% of the vote
5) Casey Kelly – 30% of the vote

Link to this post!

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Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Duanel Jones, 3B

Posted by Ryan in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Scouting Reports - (0 Comments)

Name: Duanel Jones
Report Date: 2011 NWL Season (Rookie Level)
Age: 18
Birthplace: Samana, DO
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 205
Bats: R
Throws: R

Overview: Duanel Jones is a big-bodied athlete who starts off like every good steak, extremely raw. There is a huge gap in the player Jones is now and the player he may one day become. Currently he is playing third base but it is highly likely that a move to first base or an outfield corner is in his future.

Physical Attributes: Jones is one big athlete. He has very long arms, a wider-than-average build and big legs. He is by no means fat. If Jones wants to stay at a position with a defensive component he needs to keep from gaining any amount of weight. If he moves to first base he could easily put on 15-20 lbs and not be any worse for it. He has a great arm and great bat speed. His arm is so good that it has allowed him to stay at third despite limited range. His swing is very raw but his bat speed has given the Padres something to dream on.

Hitting: Jones hits from an open, upright stance with some bend in his knees and low hands. He uses a double tap approach. Meaning he brings his foot towards his body on the load, taps, and then strides. He slots his hands well on his load. Because there is so much movement in this style of loading, Jones often has an inconsistent pace with his swing. Sometimes he looks slow and relaxed and other times he has to rush to get everything lined up for his swing. Jones also turns his front shoulder in during his load more than you would like to see. It creates a situation where his shoulders aren’t directly lined up with the pitcher and instead are lined up somewhere between the pitcher and first base. The problem with this movement is it has a tendency to make hitters really uncoil on their swing leading to their front shoulder flying open which is exactly what Jones does.

When the swing gets going the bat speed is undeniable. There is a lot of effort in generating this bat speed so it tends not be pretty when Jones swings and misses. He often ends up off balance following his vicious swing. He has a good plane through the zone with some lift but doesn’t extend as well as his body would allow him too. His lower half fires very aggressively but does so in a very rotational fashion. Combine this with his less than ideal extension and you can imagine why Jones has trouble with pitches on the outer third of the plate.

At this point Jones is basically a pull side hitter. On pitches away, particularly off-speed offerings, Jones will simply beat the ball into the ground to the left side. Once he finds some balance in his swing, irons out his load and generates some extension Jones will begin to hit for a better average. He will never be a player who grades out very highly on his hit tool but there is still plenty of room for improvement from his current state. Current – 30 | Future – 45 Continue reading “Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Duanel Jones, 3B” »

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