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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Midseason 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (14 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must still posses their rookie status.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  The easiest way to understand the rankings is to consider what order players would be selected in if the entire organization were eligible for a draft.  Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

Updated: July 2012

*Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, Alexi Amarista, Anthony Bass and Joe Wieland were not eligible for this list due to their big league status*

1) Rymer Liriano – With the graduations of Grandal and Alonso, Liriano is able to reclaim his spot as the Padres’ top prospect.  A surprising midseason promotion to Double A offered a new challenge for the 21 year old who still has 20/20 potential with plus defense in right field. ETA: Late 2013

2) Keyvius Sampson – Although his stat line looks less than dominant, Sampson has had a huge year for the progression of his career.  The Padres elected to skip the 21-year-old Florida native over High A as a way to jump start his advancement through the organization after he came to camp this Spring with an improved curveball.  ETA: Late 2013

3) Jedd Gyorko – Gyorko has seen his stock rise as much as any Padres prospect this season after putting up huge numbers in San Antonio and Tucson, and a call up appears more imminent than ever.  Still, baring a trade or injury Gyorko is unlikely to see action until later in the season even with his newfound versatility as a serviceable second baseman.  ETA: 2012

4) Max Fried – Fried is making his first appearance in the Padres’ Top 25 after being selected eighth overall in the 2012 MLB Draft.  Fried is scheduled to throw about 20 innings this season in the Arizona League before his preparation for 2013 will begin.  The 18-year-old lefty offers top-of-the-rotation upside and may be benefiting in these rankings from limited play thus far.  ETA: Late 2015

5) Austin Hedges – It’s tough to say enough about how impressive Hedges’ 2012 campaign has been thus far as he’s managed to keep a respectable batting average, show an excellent approach and hit for a surprising amount of power in his first full season of professional baseball while playing elite defense behind the plate.  Hedges’ bat is much more advanced than most scouts had come to believe which could shorten his development time in a big way.  ETA: Late 2014 Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Midseason 2012” »

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Padres Prospects First Half Review

Posted by Jeff in Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | MLB Draft | Organizational Audit | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Scouting Reports | Tucson Padres - (4 Comments)

And just like that, the first half of the minor league season is over.  It seems like just yesterday we were reporting from Spring Training and getting excited over the aggressive promotions of Edinson Rincon and Keyvius Sampson, yet here we are 90 days later with a half-season of games to look back on.

Injuries have become the calling card of 2012 on both the MLB and MiLB sides with 13 prospects from our Preseason Top 25 spending time on the disabled list.  Luckily, few of those seem very serious but the Padres seem set on letting guys like Joe Ross, Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland take a very slow road back to live action.

Tucson Padres

Position prospects on the Tucson Padres shined offensively with Yasmani Grandal (.335/.443/.521) and the early-season promotion Jedd Gyorko (.341/.383/.592) leading the way.  Grandal has hit his way into an extended look in San Diego replacing a slumping Nick Hundley and Gyorko is expected to join him sometime in the near future. Continue reading “Padres Prospects First Half Review” »

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Casey Kelly Injury Update

Posted by Jeff in Player Update | Tucson Padres - (1 Comments)

It had been a great year so far for Casey Kelly prior to Monday.  In his first two career Triple A starts Kelly had gone 12 innings while allowing just three runs and striking out 14 batters.  In addition, the sinker specialist has managed to hold a 1.63 ground-ball-to-fly-ball rate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League through his first two starts.  A small sample to be sure, but extremely encouraging results for a guy who underwent delivery changes just two months prior.

On Monday, Kelly was scratched from his scheduled start due to what the team called “elbow discomfort.”  In the time since then GM Josh Byrnes has revealed that Kelly complained of elbow soreness after his last start, which caused the team to take an extremely cautious approach.

That cautious approach led to an MRI performed by Padres doctors back in San Diego that revealed elbow inflammation that would place Kelly on the disabled list for the next few weeks. Continue reading “Casey Kelly Injury Update” »

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Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 17, 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (7 Comments)

Star Performer:

Rico Noel, CF (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Noel’s production this season has to be a very pleasant surprise to the Padres after tasking him with learning how to switch hit this last offseason.  He was 12-for-32 heading into Monday’s game with seven steals in as many attempts and hitting a robust .370 against righties in 27 at bats.  Noel is never going to be a big power guy, but with his speed and contact skills you’d like to see a few more extra-base hits.  With an insane 91.5% career steal rate even if Noel is limited to singles you’re almost guaranteed to see him on second soon enough.

Rock Steady:

Jace Peterson, SS (Low-A Fort Wayne) – It’s been a great stretch for Peterson so far hitting leadoff for the TinCaps.  With three doubles, a triple and a homerun Peterson has shown a strong bat to go with his three steals.  Defensive production is still a concern as he continues to show plus tools in his arm and glove, but at this point he hasn’t been able to put them together.

Casey Kelly, RHP (Triple-A Tucson) – Kelly’s season was off to a fantastic start – 2.25 ERA in 12 innings pitched – before news came down before his start on Monday that he was headed to the 7-day disabled list with a sore elbow.  At last check there was no definitive word on exactly what plagued Kelly or a firm time table. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 17, 2012” »

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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Preseason 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Scouting Reports | Tucson Padres - (12 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must still posses their rookie status.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  The easiest way to understand the rankings is to consider what order players would be selected in if the entire organization were eligible for a draft.  Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

Updated: February 2012

1) Yasmani Grandal – In his first full season as a professional, Grandal firmly established himself as a legitimate two-way catcher.  He has taken some heat for his receiving skills, but Grandal has enough athleticism and plus arm strength to at least be average defensively down the road.  Combine that with a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and you’ve got the most intriguing player in a deep Padres system.  ETA: Late 2012

2) Yonder Alonso – Alonso earns the nod over players with higher ceilings below him because of his mix of upside and low bust potential.  With a patient approach and the ability to use all fields Alonso doesn’t quite fit the mold of the traditional first-base masher but should provide the Padres with above average production at the position for years to come. ETA: 2012 Opening Day Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Preseason 2012” »

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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Post Season 2011

Posted by Jeff in Scouting Reports - (12 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must be currently in the minors or temporarily filling a roster spot on the Major League club.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  Estimated Time of Arrival, ETA, for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.  If you disagree with a ranking or an evaluation that is fine.  You could ask 10 experts to submit a list of top prospects and no two would be the same.  Disparity among the evaluations is what makes them interesting!

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message.

1) Keyvius Sampson – Sampson had the most dominant season of any starting-pitching prospect in the Padres’ system.  In his age-20 season, Sampson struck out just under 11 batters per nine while allowing just 81 hits in 118 innings pitched.  The control still needs fine tuning – 3.7 BB/9 – but with the amount of production he is providing at such a young age you’ll take a rough area to his game.  ETA: Late 2013

2) Rymer Liriano – If Liriano played center field he would be considered a legit five-tool future star.  With 20/20 projections placed on his power and speed combined with a plus arm and a hit tool that grades out to at least average, Liriano provides the Padres with a right fielder of the future to dream on.  ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015

3) Robbie Erlin – A 1.38 ERA and 10.7 K/9 rate in 26 innings after joining the Padres’ organization showed what Erlin is capable of accomplishing when left alone to pitch.  He made 16 starts – and 17 appearances – in Double-A this season, but likely will be assigned to San Antonio in 2012 because of the hitting environment in Tucson.  ETA: Late 2012

4) Austin Hedges – Hedges is the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2011 draft class that cost the organization a cool $11,020,600.  While most see him as a defense-first catcher with a passable bat, Hedges has the ability to be much more than that if given the time to develop.  Catchers with an All Star ceiling don’t come around too often so expect the Padres to put a lot of time into Hedges.  ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015

5) Casey Kelly – Many are quick to judge that 2011 was a disappointing year for Kelly.  While the home/road splits are concerning, when you dive deeper you see that luck can go a long way in explaining why his box score numbers don’t look great: (BABIP – HR/FB – K/BB – FIP) Home – .269 – 7.3% – 2.25 – 3.68 Road .378 – 7.7% – 2.31 – 3.52.  ETA: 2013 Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Post Season 2011” »

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Top 25 Padres Prospects – August

Posted by Jeff in Scouting Reports - (1 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must be currently in the minors or temporarily filling a roster spot on the Major League club.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  Estimated Time of Arrival, ETA, for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.  If you disagree with a ranking or an evaluation that is fine.  You could ask 10 experts to submit a list of top prospects and no two would be the same.  Disparity among the evaluations is what makes them interesting!

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message.

Updated: August 2011 – 2011 Draft Picks who had not signed by the beginning of August were not considered.

1) Robbie Erlin – Although he’s only been a Padre for a few days, Erlin has the skills and track record to thrive in San Diego much like Mat Latos has.  As evident by his 129/13 K/BB ratio in 127.1 IP in 2011 Erlin is an extreme command pitcher, but he’s still learning to control the strike zone.  While many see his ceiling as 2 or a 3, pitching half his games in Petco – and most of the rest at friendly NL West parks – should help Erlin perform as a dominant top-of-the-rotation starter in the big leagues. ETA: Late 2012

2) Casey Kelly – Kelly came over in the offseason as the big name in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.  A two-way player when drafted, Kelly is in just his second season as a fulltime pitcher.  Scouts are still waiting for the results to match the stuff, but Kelly still has all of the tools and leftover projection to be a very successful pitcher and a plus-plus defender at his position. ETA: 2013

3) Keyvius Sampson – An elite athlete, Sampson lacks the desired frame that would project him as a potential future ace.  Armed with a low to mid-90s fastball and a violent delivery, Sampson is missing bats at an impressive rate – 10.5 K/9 – and has shown consistent control over his first two full seasons.  With a 1.026 WHIP in Class A Fort Wayne, he should see a few starts in Lake Elsinore before the season’s over.  ETA: 2014

4) Joe Wieland – Wieland put himself firmly on the prospect map with his July 29th complete game no hitter against his future franchise.  While he doesn’t have quite the ceiling that Erlin does, Wieland is just as safe of a bet to be a solid 3 or 4 for the Padres for the next several years.  His strikeout rates are a bit deceptive, but Wieland has more than enough stuff than he needs with his 70-grade control.  ETA: 2012

5) Cory Spangenberg – While Spangenberg may not have the ceiling of a typical number 9 overall pick, he is a great hitter with legitimate tools.  He started off his San Diego career by dominating Short-Season ball in Eugene to the tune of .394/.545/.535, but has struggled since joining Fort Wayne.  His hitting ability is legitimate and will be the tool that carries him to the majors.  ETA: Late 2014 Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – August” »

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