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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Midseason 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (14 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must still posses their rookie status.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  The easiest way to understand the rankings is to consider what order players would be selected in if the entire organization were eligible for a draft.  Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

Updated: July 2012

*Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, Alexi Amarista, Anthony Bass and Joe Wieland were not eligible for this list due to their big league status*

1) Rymer Liriano – With the graduations of Grandal and Alonso, Liriano is able to reclaim his spot as the Padres’ top prospect.  A surprising midseason promotion to Double A offered a new challenge for the 21 year old who still has 20/20 potential with plus defense in right field. ETA: Late 2013

2) Keyvius Sampson – Although his stat line looks less than dominant, Sampson has had a huge year for the progression of his career.  The Padres elected to skip the 21-year-old Florida native over High A as a way to jump start his advancement through the organization after he came to camp this Spring with an improved curveball.  ETA: Late 2013

3) Jedd Gyorko – Gyorko has seen his stock rise as much as any Padres prospect this season after putting up huge numbers in San Antonio and Tucson, and a call up appears more imminent than ever.  Still, baring a trade or injury Gyorko is unlikely to see action until later in the season even with his newfound versatility as a serviceable second baseman.  ETA: 2012

4) Max Fried – Fried is making his first appearance in the Padres’ Top 25 after being selected eighth overall in the 2012 MLB Draft.  Fried is scheduled to throw about 20 innings this season in the Arizona League before his preparation for 2013 will begin.  The 18-year-old lefty offers top-of-the-rotation upside and may be benefiting in these rankings from limited play thus far.  ETA: Late 2015

5) Austin Hedges – It’s tough to say enough about how impressive Hedges’ 2012 campaign has been thus far as he’s managed to keep a respectable batting average, show an excellent approach and hit for a surprising amount of power in his first full season of professional baseball while playing elite defense behind the plate.  Hedges’ bat is much more advanced than most scouts had come to believe which could shorten his development time in a big way.  ETA: Late 2014 Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Midseason 2012” »

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Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 17, 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (7 Comments)

Star Performer:

Rico Noel, CF (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Noel’s production this season has to be a very pleasant surprise to the Padres after tasking him with learning how to switch hit this last offseason.  He was 12-for-32 heading into Monday’s game with seven steals in as many attempts and hitting a robust .370 against righties in 27 at bats.  Noel is never going to be a big power guy, but with his speed and contact skills you’d like to see a few more extra-base hits.  With an insane 91.5% career steal rate even if Noel is limited to singles you’re almost guaranteed to see him on second soon enough.

Rock Steady:

Jace Peterson, SS (Low-A Fort Wayne) – It’s been a great stretch for Peterson so far hitting leadoff for the TinCaps.  With three doubles, a triple and a homerun Peterson has shown a strong bat to go with his three steals.  Defensive production is still a concern as he continues to show plus tools in his arm and glove, but at this point he hasn’t been able to put them together.

Casey Kelly, RHP (Triple-A Tucson) – Kelly’s season was off to a fantastic start – 2.25 ERA in 12 innings pitched – before news came down before his start on Monday that he was headed to the 7-day disabled list with a sore elbow.  At last check there was no definitive word on exactly what plagued Kelly or a firm time table. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 17, 2012” »

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2012 Spring Training Notes: Dore, Tate, Domoromo, Hedges

Posted by Jeff in Player Update | Spring Training - (3 Comments)

This is the first installment of our 2012 Spring Training Notebook, which chronicles time spent on the backfields in Arizona watching Padres prospects.  Check back for more notes and observations on top players and batting practice, game and bullpen videos still to come.

Jose Dore – Dore has always been a bit of a personal favorite of mine.  Great athletes with some idea of how to play baseball and great makeup don’t come along too often and the Padres have been encouraged with his progress – as slow as it has been – since he joined the organization as a 2010 draftee.

Dore’s swing is much cleaner and more organized than when he first joined the Padres.  He keeps his hands high with a quiet load that leads to a nice, balanced swing that allows Dore to square up balls and make the type of consistently hard contact his game had been missing.  Continue reading “2012 Spring Training Notes: Dore, Tate, Domoromo, Hedges” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: 2012 Spring Training Part 1

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (1 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag that will be posted later in Spring Training, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Do the Padres really expect the hit tool to develop with Austin Hedges?  3MIL even for a Gold Glove-type catcher seems a little excessive given concerns about his hitting – Gabe

In short, yes.  Hedges is a great example of a player in the draft who caused many teams to have differing opinions.  While there was absolutely no one denying his defensive prowess, the combination of Hedges’ high school team almost never holding batting practice sessions that were open to scouts and media members and opponents constantly pitching around him led to few teams having much experience watching Hedges’ bat in action.

Luckily for the Padres, Jaron Madison and his team were able to get more good looks of Hedges than just about any other team in the league.  Like with any player there’s no guarantee that Hedges will mature and progress to the point of reaching the majors, but you can be sure that no team in the league – not just the budget-minded Padres – would be willing to spend $3 million on a player they didn’t feel had a great chance of turning into a star.

It’s also important to remember just how low the hitting bar is at catcher in modern-day baseball.  Outside of 2010, MLB catchers have produced the worst offensive output of any position in baseball every year since 2000.  The Padres don’t need Hedges to post an .800 OPS to be a star with his defensive tools.  Though should he get to that point – which a few key people in the organization believe he can – you’re looking at a perennial All Star.

There’s been a lot of talk about breakout players for 2012, but who do you think is going to slide a bit on lists? – Angel Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: 2012 Spring Training Part 1” »

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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Preseason 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Scouting Reports | Tucson Padres - (12 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must still posses their rookie status.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  The easiest way to understand the rankings is to consider what order players would be selected in if the entire organization were eligible for a draft.  Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

Updated: February 2012

1) Yasmani Grandal – In his first full season as a professional, Grandal firmly established himself as a legitimate two-way catcher.  He has taken some heat for his receiving skills, but Grandal has enough athleticism and plus arm strength to at least be average defensively down the road.  Combine that with a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and you’ve got the most intriguing player in a deep Padres system.  ETA: Late 2012

2) Yonder Alonso – Alonso earns the nod over players with higher ceilings below him because of his mix of upside and low bust potential.  With a patient approach and the ability to use all fields Alonso doesn’t quite fit the mold of the traditional first-base masher but should provide the Padres with above average production at the position for years to come. ETA: 2012 Opening Day Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Preseason 2012” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: January

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

What can we expect from Kyle Blanks moving forward? Has he reached his ceiling? – Chelsea

While I’m not 100% sure what Blanks’ future holds I think it’s safe to say that he hasn’t reached his ceiling.  Blanks showed throughout his time in the minors that, if nothing else, he would offer an above average power stroke and the ability to get on base.  But, what we’ve seen over three injury-riddled seasons is a player who has struggled to translate offensively while providing more than expected defensively:

Year G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 54 172 148 24 37 9 0 10 22 1 1 18 55 .250 .355 .514 .868
2010 33 120 102 14 16 6 1 3 15 1 0 15 46 .157 .283 .324 .607
2011 55 190 170 21 39 7 1 7 26 2 0 16 51 .229 .300 .406 .706

The Padres have made it completely clear that they have all but cooled on Blanks with the acquisition of Carlos Quentin and the further diminishment of Blanks’ role with the club – not to mention Yonder Alonso and Jesus Guzman likely taking just about every at bat this season at first base.

2012 likely means a return to Tucson for Blanks where he will take over Anthony Rizzo’s vacated roster spot and hope for an opportunity with the big club or trade to a less crowded situation.  In a neutral environment it’s not out of the question to think that Blanks could post a .250/.350/.475 line while playing solid defense in either left field or at first base where that line would be far less valuable.

I’m not going to ask for your top 10, because the system is so deep.  What does your top 15 prospect look like after the Latos trade? – Dustin Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: January” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: December

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

The Rays just locked up Matt Moore.  When are the Padres going to do this with one of their young players and show the fans that they are serious about winning? – Steve

There are two things to consider here: 1) both Moore and the Rays are taking on a significant amount of risk in this move 2) the Padres lack the type of talent that you would consider giving this type of contract.

To the first point – Yes, this deal (much like the one given to Evan Longoria) looks fantastic on paper.  The Rays just assured themselves what many pundits believe to be a premier, front-of-the-rotation starter through his age-30 season for a maximum cost of $40 million.  To make this deal even sweeter for the club if Moore blows out his arm in his first start of 2012 they have only guaranteed him $14 million!  But even $14 million for a club like the Rays that operates on razor thin margins is a significant commitment considering the attrition rate of young pitchers.

For Moore, his risk is tied to the fact that he may just live up to expectations meaning that he will lose out on tens of million of dollars in potential earnings through arbitration and his first few years of free agency.  On the other hand, as mentioned above he could suffer a career ending injury next season but still have a nice $14 million cushion to help out him and his family.

To the second point – When teams begin discussing offering contracts to players with less than two years of service time the first question that is asked is: “What do we believe this player will become?”

While the Padres currently have one of the top farm systems in the league, they simply lack the elite level talent – top three to five in all of baseball – that you’d consider guaranteeing more the five years to before seeing any sort of production.

What do you make of this whole Drew Cumberland situation? – Tim Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: December” »

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Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Donavan Tate, CF

Posted by Ryan in Eugene Emeralds | Scouting Reports - (7 Comments)

Name: Donavan Tate
Report Date: 2011 NWL Season (Rookie Level)
Age: 20
Birthplace: Cartersville, GA
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 200
Bats: R
Throws: R

Overview: As the 3rd overall draft pick in 2009 – and recipient of a club-record $6.25 mil bonus – Tate has been the source of much frustration for the Padres and those who follow the team. The tools are all there for this young man to be an impact player, but a rash of injuries and off-the-field issues have hampered his development. This is the classic toolsy, high risk, high ceiling player that has just as great of a chance of making the majors as he does burning out in the low minors.

Physical Attributes: Tate is a supreme athlete and his body reflects this.  He has a swimmer-like build with long arms and legs that show room for excellent growth on his frame in the future. He has incredible bat speed that is head and shoulders above just about every other player in the Northwest League. The phrase “runs like a gazelle” comes to mind when he runs, as, not only is he incredibly fast, but Tate looks so relaxed and doesn’t seem to exude much effort (not a lack of effort, but his athleticism makes everything seem easy).

Hitting: When Tate was drafted, this was the aspect of his game that drew the most ire. Even though Tate possesses plus bat speed and uses his hands very well, there is still a lot of swing-and-miss to be dealt with. He does avoid some classic flaws that many minor leaguers will show. Tate is always soft on his front side, which allows him to maintain balance throughout his swing. He also keeps his front shoulder in most of the time but is still prone to letting it fly open every now and then. There is some difficulty in judging Tate as a hitter, as he changed his swing following his most recent drug-related suspension.

Before the suspension he hit with an upright stance with movement going on during his loading phase. Tate slotted his hands well by taking them slightly back during his load, which allowed him great length through the hitting zone. When he fired the swing he got excellent hip rotation. Overall this was a very loose, relaxed, and athletic looking swing. This is all apparent in the video below: Continue reading “Padres Prospect Scouting Report: Donavan Tate, CF” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: August Part 1

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (3 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 2 of the Mailbag.

Where has Edinson Rincon been? – John

Rincon was struck by a pitch on June 25 that knocked him out of action until August 25.  He is currently rehabbing with the Padres’ Arizona League affiliate and may be a candidate for the Arizona Fall League if the Padres are concerned about getting him extra at bats before re-evaluating him in Spring Training.

It is important to remember that we may not see the normal Rincon for quite some time.  The injury he suffered – a broken Hamate bone – is known to sap a batters power severely and full recovery time for their true ability to return can be 12-18 months.  Scouts and talent evaluators love the potential that Rincon brings on offense.  He has a fluid swing that is aided by his strong wrists.  Just be prepared to possibly see a lighter-hitting Rincon than in the past.

Any thoughts on what players the Padres will send to the Arizona Fall League? – Ryan

As I mentioned above, I do believe that Rincon is a strong candidate for the AFL.

Others who could potentially make an appearance:

Simon Castro – he appeared to be on the cusp of a call up heading into the season but has experienced serious regression in his secondary offerings.  With just over 100 innings pitched on the season he has more than enough bullets left in his arm this year to pitch through the winter.

Jason Hagerty – he lacks much experience against upper-level competition so the AFL would be a great challenge for him.

Cody Decker – he missed almost three months of live action.  Now that his ankle is fully healed the Padres would like to get him as much experience as possible so that his promotion path is not delayed.  Still, even with some AFL experience another year in San Antonio is not out of the question for the undersized first baseman.

Jaff Decker – he has already surpassed his career-high in games, but with his struggles in adjusting to a new stance the Peoria native may be asked to play some extra baseball over the offseason.

Like every other team the Padres will send six players, two of which can be from lower than Double-A if the team so chooses. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: August Part 1” »

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