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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Midseason 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (14 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must still posses their rookie status.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  The easiest way to understand the rankings is to consider what order players would be selected in if the entire organization were eligible for a draft.  Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

Updated: July 2012

*Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, Alexi Amarista, Anthony Bass and Joe Wieland were not eligible for this list due to their big league status*

1) Rymer Liriano – With the graduations of Grandal and Alonso, Liriano is able to reclaim his spot as the Padres’ top prospect.  A surprising midseason promotion to Double A offered a new challenge for the 21 year old who still has 20/20 potential with plus defense in right field. ETA: Late 2013

2) Keyvius Sampson – Although his stat line looks less than dominant, Sampson has had a huge year for the progression of his career.  The Padres elected to skip the 21-year-old Florida native over High A as a way to jump start his advancement through the organization after he came to camp this Spring with an improved curveball.  ETA: Late 2013

3) Jedd Gyorko – Gyorko has seen his stock rise as much as any Padres prospect this season after putting up huge numbers in San Antonio and Tucson, and a call up appears more imminent than ever.  Still, baring a trade or injury Gyorko is unlikely to see action until later in the season even with his newfound versatility as a serviceable second baseman.  ETA: 2012

4) Max Fried – Fried is making his first appearance in the Padres’ Top 25 after being selected eighth overall in the 2012 MLB Draft.  Fried is scheduled to throw about 20 innings this season in the Arizona League before his preparation for 2013 will begin.  The 18-year-old lefty offers top-of-the-rotation upside and may be benefiting in these rankings from limited play thus far.  ETA: Late 2015

5) Austin Hedges – It’s tough to say enough about how impressive Hedges’ 2012 campaign has been thus far as he’s managed to keep a respectable batting average, show an excellent approach and hit for a surprising amount of power in his first full season of professional baseball while playing elite defense behind the plate.  Hedges’ bat is much more advanced than most scouts had come to believe which could shorten his development time in a big way.  ETA: Late 2014 Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Midseason 2012” »

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Padres Prospects First Half Review

Posted by Jeff in Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | MLB Draft | Organizational Audit | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Scouting Reports | Tucson Padres - (4 Comments)

And just like that, the first half of the minor league season is over.  It seems like just yesterday we were reporting from Spring Training and getting excited over the aggressive promotions of Edinson Rincon and Keyvius Sampson, yet here we are 90 days later with a half-season of games to look back on.

Injuries have become the calling card of 2012 on both the MLB and MiLB sides with 13 prospects from our Preseason Top 25 spending time on the disabled list.  Luckily, few of those seem very serious but the Padres seem set on letting guys like Joe Ross, Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland take a very slow road back to live action.

Tucson Padres

Position prospects on the Tucson Padres shined offensively with Yasmani Grandal (.335/.443/.521) and the early-season promotion Jedd Gyorko (.341/.383/.592) leading the way.  Grandal has hit his way into an extended look in San Diego replacing a slumping Nick Hundley and Gyorko is expected to join him sometime in the near future. Continue reading “Padres Prospects First Half Review” »

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Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 27, 2012

Posted by Jeff in Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | Prospect Rap Sheet | San Antonio Missions - (3 Comments)

Stats for High-A hitters are as of play Wednesday.

Star Performer:

Adys Portillo, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Walks are still a constant struggle for Portillo with 12 already in just 20.1 innings pitched, but his other peripherals have been much better.  So far he’s only allowed nine hits and a single homerun.  TinCap coaches have been encouraging Portillo to just let his fastball rip right down the middle of the zone so his approach will need some refinement before he’s able to really take off.

Rock Steady:

Frank Garces, LHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Garces has been on a tear since opening the season for the TinCaps.  In his Saturday start Garces went eight strong innings while allowing just six base runners and threw five solid innings on Thursday.  The 5’11” lefty has a devastating curveball when he’s on, but with his inconsistent control things can get ugly fast. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 27, 2012” »

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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Preseason 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Scouting Reports | Tucson Padres - (12 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must still posses their rookie status.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  The easiest way to understand the rankings is to consider what order players would be selected in if the entire organization were eligible for a draft.  Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

Updated: February 2012

1) Yasmani Grandal – In his first full season as a professional, Grandal firmly established himself as a legitimate two-way catcher.  He has taken some heat for his receiving skills, but Grandal has enough athleticism and plus arm strength to at least be average defensively down the road.  Combine that with a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and you’ve got the most intriguing player in a deep Padres system.  ETA: Late 2012

2) Yonder Alonso – Alonso earns the nod over players with higher ceilings below him because of his mix of upside and low bust potential.  With a patient approach and the ability to use all fields Alonso doesn’t quite fit the mold of the traditional first-base masher but should provide the Padres with above average production at the position for years to come. ETA: 2012 Opening Day Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Preseason 2012” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: September

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Why is everybody so down on Fuentes?  He has identical numbers to last year, all be it at a higher level, when he was a key piece of the Gonzalez trade.  If he can continue to put up similar numbers in the minors and then into the Majors, he will be a prototypical player for Petco, which is what Hoyer has been looking for.  It was the kid’s first season in a new organization with a different teaching style I’m sure.  Everyone else can write this kid off, but if puts up these same numbers next year in AA I’ll be happy. – Dustin

For reference, here is Fuentes’ slash line the last two seasons:
2010 – .270/.328/.377
2011 – .275/.342/.369

The main problem here is that Fuentes went from a league that plays fairly neutral in the Sally League to the second most hitter-friendly environment in professional baseball in the California League.  The Cal League is known to inflate offensive numbers by as much as 10-15%, meaning that you really have to shave off some of Fuentes’ production to see his true performance this season.

Like I said in the August Mailbag, I still think Fuentes has the physical tools and baseball ability to be a major leaguer, but he showed inconsistent effort throughout the season leading to many question marks surrounding his game.

If Fuentes is going to bounce back in the Texas League next year – assuming he gets promoted – he is going to have to start hitting more line drives and show that he is able to make more contact in general.

I was wondering if you could give your opinion on Ross and Kelly’s high school scouting report versus Whitson’s high school report.  Specifically, where would Ross and Kelly be drafted if they were eligible for the 2010 draft? – Chris

Here are the most basic versions of scouting reports for the three pitchers:

Karsten Whitson – 3 pitches (fastball, slider and changeup) that grade out currently at solid average
Joe Ross – 2 pitches (fastball and curveball) that currently grade out at average to plus with a very under-developed changeup
Michael Kelly – 1 pitch (fastball) that grades out as solid average and a curveball that is currently a below average offering

While I think the Padres received great value with their picks this year, Ross and Kelly would both have slotted well back of Whitson if all three players were in the same draft.

If you want an overall ranking of the top high school pitchers available the last two years: Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: September” »

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Padres Prospet Mailbag: August Part 2

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (4 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 1 of the Mailbag.

Is Reymond Fuentes still a legit prospect? – Jonathan

Definitely.  While Fuentes’ stock has definitely slipped, he still is loaded with enough tools to be an everyday center fielder on a contending team.  It is becoming more apparent that the bat will never be anything special, but his speed definitely plays in games and – outside of this year – he has shown the ability to make consistent contact.

Unless you see a serious regression in tools, one year of production is not enough to condemn a player.  That being said, Fuentes has a lot to prove as questions surrounding his effort are growing louder and louder.

What level will Joe Ross, Michael Kelly and Austin Hedges start at next season? – Antonio

Too early to definitively say at this point.  Ross has enough stuff to compete in the Midwest League, but the Padres may elect to tinker with his delivery in the Instructional League which may have him set to begin the season in Arizona or Eugene.  Gut says they challenge him in Fort Wayne barring unforeseen circumstances.

Kelly is much more of a project at this point with only one real pitch in his repertoire.  The conservative play would be to start him in Arizona and promote Kelly if his performance validated, but at the moment I’ll say that he begins the year in Eugene with the Emeralds.

While 20 at bats with the AZL Padres is not a ton of experience, Hedges has at least shown that his bat isn’t completely overmatched by professional pitchers.  I’d expect to see him in Fort Wayne to start 2012 barring an underwhelming spring that would send him to Eugene. Continue reading “Padres Prospet Mailbag: August Part 2” »

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Padres Grab High-End Talent in 2011 Draft

Posted by Jeff in MLB Draft | Scouting Reports - (7 Comments)

With a flair for the dramatics and an eye on infusing high-upside talent into an improving system, the Padres managed to sign three of their top-four picks that were left unsigned heading into deadline day.  Joe Ross, Michael Kelly and Austin Hedges have been added into the fold in San Diego, representing a continued dedication towards building from within and investing more into the future of the franchise than ever before.

Joe Ross – $2.75 mil (2010 Slot – $1.125 mil)

The Padres were enamoured with Ross’ mixture of athleticism and left over projection.  Many of the top high school arms in the draft were decently polished – leading to a Major League-deal for Dylan Bundy – with Ross sitting just behind Arizona’s Archie Bradley on most draft boards looking for upside.

He was the top player left on San Diego’s board at number 25 overall, and for good reason.  Ross boasts a low-90s fastball that should sit around 93-96 once his body begins to mature.  The fastball features good arm-side run (see the videos below) and could grade out to be a 65 pitch with professional coaching.  Ross’ curveball is an advanced pitch for his age, showing great spin and control, but as his delivery is tightened up with professional coaching he’ll need to keep focused on the pitch.

Like most high school arms, Ross’ changeup is a very immature pitch at this point that lacks great feel and deception.  The pace that he moves through the organization will rely on the development of his changeup, in turn giving him an effective offering to left-handed batters.

The aforementioned delivery is still very raw.  The good news is that he has not developed the stiff front leg that currently haunts his older brother, Tyson Ross.  Joe shows enough athleticism that he should have no problem repeating his delivery with enough professional coaching to help keep his front side closed and use his lower half better.

Continue reading “Padres Grab High-End Talent in 2011 Draft” »

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