Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

The Rays just locked up Matt Moore.  When are the Padres going to do this with one of their young players and show the fans that they are serious about winning? – Steve

There are two things to consider here: 1) both Moore and the Rays are taking on a significant amount of risk in this move 2) the Padres lack the type of talent that you would consider giving this type of contract.

To the first point – Yes, this deal (much like the one given to Evan Longoria) looks fantastic on paper.  The Rays just assured themselves what many pundits believe to be a premier, front-of-the-rotation starter through his age-30 season for a maximum cost of $40 million.  To make this deal even sweeter for the club if Moore blows out his arm in his first start of 2012 they have only guaranteed him $14 million!  But even $14 million for a club like the Rays that operates on razor thin margins is a significant commitment considering the attrition rate of young pitchers.

For Moore, his risk is tied to the fact that he may just live up to expectations meaning that he will lose out on tens of million of dollars in potential earnings through arbitration and his first few years of free agency.  On the other hand, as mentioned above he could suffer a career ending injury next season but still have a nice $14 million cushion to help out him and his family.

To the second point – When teams begin discussing offering contracts to players with less than two years of service time the first question that is asked is: “What do we believe this player will become?”

While the Padres currently have one of the top farm systems in the league, they simply lack the elite level talent – top three to five in all of baseball – that you’d consider guaranteeing more the five years to before seeing any sort of production.

What do you make of this whole Drew Cumberland situation? – Tim Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: December” »