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Padres Prospects First Half Review

Posted by Jeff in Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | MLB Draft | Organizational Audit | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Scouting Reports | Tucson Padres - (4 Comments)

And just like that, the first half of the minor league season is over.  It seems like just yesterday we were reporting from Spring Training and getting excited over the aggressive promotions of Edinson Rincon and Keyvius Sampson, yet here we are 90 days later with a half-season of games to look back on.

Injuries have become the calling card of 2012 on both the MLB and MiLB sides with 13 prospects from our Preseason Top 25 spending time on the disabled list.  Luckily, few of those seem very serious but the Padres seem set on letting guys like Joe Ross, Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland take a very slow road back to live action.

Tucson Padres

Position prospects on the Tucson Padres shined offensively with Yasmani Grandal (.335/.443/.521) and the early-season promotion Jedd Gyorko (.341/.383/.592) leading the way.  Grandal has hit his way into an extended look in San Diego replacing a slumping Nick Hundley and Gyorko is expected to join him sometime in the near future. Continue reading “Padres Prospects First Half Review” »

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Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 27, 2012

Posted by Jeff in Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | Prospect Rap Sheet | San Antonio Missions - (3 Comments)

Stats for High-A hitters are as of play Wednesday.

Star Performer:

Adys Portillo, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Walks are still a constant struggle for Portillo with 12 already in just 20.1 innings pitched, but his other peripherals have been much better.  So far he’s only allowed nine hits and a single homerun.  TinCap coaches have been encouraging Portillo to just let his fastball rip right down the middle of the zone so his approach will need some refinement before he’s able to really take off.

Rock Steady:

Frank Garces, LHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Garces has been on a tear since opening the season for the TinCaps.  In his Saturday start Garces went eight strong innings while allowing just six base runners and threw five solid innings on Thursday.  The 5’11” lefty has a devastating curveball when he’s on, but with his inconsistent control things can get ugly fast. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 27, 2012” »

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Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 17, 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (7 Comments)

Star Performer:

Rico Noel, CF (High-A Lake Elsinore) – Noel’s production this season has to be a very pleasant surprise to the Padres after tasking him with learning how to switch hit this last offseason.  He was 12-for-32 heading into Monday’s game with seven steals in as many attempts and hitting a robust .370 against righties in 27 at bats.  Noel is never going to be a big power guy, but with his speed and contact skills you’d like to see a few more extra-base hits.  With an insane 91.5% career steal rate even if Noel is limited to singles you’re almost guaranteed to see him on second soon enough.

Rock Steady:

Jace Peterson, SS (Low-A Fort Wayne) – It’s been a great stretch for Peterson so far hitting leadoff for the TinCaps.  With three doubles, a triple and a homerun Peterson has shown a strong bat to go with his three steals.  Defensive production is still a concern as he continues to show plus tools in his arm and glove, but at this point he hasn’t been able to put them together.

Casey Kelly, RHP (Triple-A Tucson) – Kelly’s season was off to a fantastic start – 2.25 ERA in 12 innings pitched – before news came down before his start on Monday that he was headed to the 7-day disabled list with a sore elbow.  At last check there was no definitive word on exactly what plagued Kelly or a firm time table. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: April 17, 2012” »

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2012 Spring Training Notes: Dore, Tate, Domoromo, Hedges

Posted by Jeff in Player Update | Spring Training - (3 Comments)

This is the first installment of our 2012 Spring Training Notebook, which chronicles time spent on the backfields in Arizona watching Padres prospects.  Check back for more notes and observations on top players and batting practice, game and bullpen videos still to come.

Jose Dore – Dore has always been a bit of a personal favorite of mine.  Great athletes with some idea of how to play baseball and great makeup don’t come along too often and the Padres have been encouraged with his progress – as slow as it has been – since he joined the organization as a 2010 draftee.

Dore’s swing is much cleaner and more organized than when he first joined the Padres.  He keeps his hands high with a quiet load that leads to a nice, balanced swing that allows Dore to square up balls and make the type of consistently hard contact his game had been missing.  Continue reading “2012 Spring Training Notes: Dore, Tate, Domoromo, Hedges” »

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Top 25 Padres Prospects – Preseason 2012

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Scouting Reports | Tucson Padres - (12 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must still posses their rookie status.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  The easiest way to understand the rankings is to consider what order players would be selected in if the entire organization were eligible for a draft.  Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.

Updated: February 2012

1) Yasmani Grandal – In his first full season as a professional, Grandal firmly established himself as a legitimate two-way catcher.  He has taken some heat for his receiving skills, but Grandal has enough athleticism and plus arm strength to at least be average defensively down the road.  Combine that with a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and you’ve got the most intriguing player in a deep Padres system.  ETA: Late 2012

2) Yonder Alonso – Alonso earns the nod over players with higher ceilings below him because of his mix of upside and low bust potential.  With a patient approach and the ability to use all fields Alonso doesn’t quite fit the mold of the traditional first-base masher but should provide the Padres with above average production at the position for years to come. ETA: 2012 Opening Day Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Preseason 2012” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: January

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

What can we expect from Kyle Blanks moving forward? Has he reached his ceiling? – Chelsea

While I’m not 100% sure what Blanks’ future holds I think it’s safe to say that he hasn’t reached his ceiling.  Blanks showed throughout his time in the minors that, if nothing else, he would offer an above average power stroke and the ability to get on base.  But, what we’ve seen over three injury-riddled seasons is a player who has struggled to translate offensively while providing more than expected defensively:

Year G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 54 172 148 24 37 9 0 10 22 1 1 18 55 .250 .355 .514 .868
2010 33 120 102 14 16 6 1 3 15 1 0 15 46 .157 .283 .324 .607
2011 55 190 170 21 39 7 1 7 26 2 0 16 51 .229 .300 .406 .706

The Padres have made it completely clear that they have all but cooled on Blanks with the acquisition of Carlos Quentin and the further diminishment of Blanks’ role with the club – not to mention Yonder Alonso and Jesus Guzman likely taking just about every at bat this season at first base.

2012 likely means a return to Tucson for Blanks where he will take over Anthony Rizzo’s vacated roster spot and hope for an opportunity with the big club or trade to a less crowded situation.  In a neutral environment it’s not out of the question to think that Blanks could post a .250/.350/.475 line while playing solid defense in either left field or at first base where that line would be far less valuable.

I’m not going to ask for your top 10, because the system is so deep.  What does your top 15 prospect look like after the Latos trade? – Dustin Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: January” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: December

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

The Rays just locked up Matt Moore.  When are the Padres going to do this with one of their young players and show the fans that they are serious about winning? – Steve

There are two things to consider here: 1) both Moore and the Rays are taking on a significant amount of risk in this move 2) the Padres lack the type of talent that you would consider giving this type of contract.

To the first point – Yes, this deal (much like the one given to Evan Longoria) looks fantastic on paper.  The Rays just assured themselves what many pundits believe to be a premier, front-of-the-rotation starter through his age-30 season for a maximum cost of $40 million.  To make this deal even sweeter for the club if Moore blows out his arm in his first start of 2012 they have only guaranteed him $14 million!  But even $14 million for a club like the Rays that operates on razor thin margins is a significant commitment considering the attrition rate of young pitchers.

For Moore, his risk is tied to the fact that he may just live up to expectations meaning that he will lose out on tens of million of dollars in potential earnings through arbitration and his first few years of free agency.  On the other hand, as mentioned above he could suffer a career ending injury next season but still have a nice $14 million cushion to help out him and his family.

To the second point – When teams begin discussing offering contracts to players with less than two years of service time the first question that is asked is: “What do we believe this player will become?”

While the Padres currently have one of the top farm systems in the league, they simply lack the elite level talent – top three to five in all of baseball – that you’d consider guaranteeing more the five years to before seeing any sort of production.

What do you make of this whole Drew Cumberland situation? – Tim Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: December” »

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Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: August 9, 2011

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Player Update | Prospect Rap Sheet | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (2 Comments)

Star Performer:

Robbie Erlin, LHP (Double-A San Antonio) – Since joining the Padres Organization all Erlin has done is dominate: 12 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 15 K.  Diving deeper into Erlin’s performance you see that he has retired all 12 left-handed batters and maintained his plus-plus command he showed while with the Rangers.  Could he be inspired by his #1 ranking in the Padres Prospects Top-25?  Probably not.  Erlin’s previous career high in innings was 114.2 in 2010, so don’t be surprised to see shorter outings down the stretch for the 20-year-old.

Rock Steady:

Rymer Liriano, RF (Low-A Fort Wayne) – He was the Padres Prospects Player of the Month in July, and a .318/.370/.455 line in 7 August games isn’t going to disappoint anyone.  Liriano is beginning to be pitched around by teams, so don’t be surprised to see his numbers take a dip.  Also, a .395 BABIP is never a sign of completely sustainable play.

Rico Noel, CF (Low-A Fort Wayne) –With an absurd 94.4% steal success rate, he possess game-changing speed and he obviously knows how to use it.  As a point of reference, 36.2% of the time Noel reaches base he steals a bag.

Kevin Quackenbush, RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 K since being promoted to the Tin Caps to give him a season line that includes a 0.35 ERA in 27.1 IP since being selected in June’s draft.

Keyvius Sampson, LHP RHP (Low-A Fort Wayne) – Continue reading “Padres Prospect Rap Sheet: August 9, 2011” »

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