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Padres Prospect Mailbag: December

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

The Rays just locked up Matt Moore.  When are the Padres going to do this with one of their young players and show the fans that they are serious about winning? – Steve

There are two things to consider here: 1) both Moore and the Rays are taking on a significant amount of risk in this move 2) the Padres lack the type of talent that you would consider giving this type of contract.

To the first point – Yes, this deal (much like the one given to Evan Longoria) looks fantastic on paper.  The Rays just assured themselves what many pundits believe to be a premier, front-of-the-rotation starter through his age-30 season for a maximum cost of $40 million.  To make this deal even sweeter for the club if Moore blows out his arm in his first start of 2012 they have only guaranteed him $14 million!  But even $14 million for a club like the Rays that operates on razor thin margins is a significant commitment considering the attrition rate of young pitchers.

For Moore, his risk is tied to the fact that he may just live up to expectations meaning that he will lose out on tens of million of dollars in potential earnings through arbitration and his first few years of free agency.  On the other hand, as mentioned above he could suffer a career ending injury next season but still have a nice $14 million cushion to help out him and his family.

To the second point – When teams begin discussing offering contracts to players with less than two years of service time the first question that is asked is: “What do we believe this player will become?”

While the Padres currently have one of the top farm systems in the league, they simply lack the elite level talent – top three to five in all of baseball – that you’d consider guaranteeing more the five years to before seeing any sort of production.

What do you make of this whole Drew Cumberland situation? – Tim Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: December” »

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Padres Prospet Mailbag: August Part 2

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (4 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 1 of the Mailbag.

Is Reymond Fuentes still a legit prospect? – Jonathan

Definitely.  While Fuentes’ stock has definitely slipped, he still is loaded with enough tools to be an everyday center fielder on a contending team.  It is becoming more apparent that the bat will never be anything special, but his speed definitely plays in games and – outside of this year – he has shown the ability to make consistent contact.

Unless you see a serious regression in tools, one year of production is not enough to condemn a player.  That being said, Fuentes has a lot to prove as questions surrounding his effort are growing louder and louder.

What level will Joe Ross, Michael Kelly and Austin Hedges start at next season? – Antonio

Too early to definitively say at this point.  Ross has enough stuff to compete in the Midwest League, but the Padres may elect to tinker with his delivery in the Instructional League which may have him set to begin the season in Arizona or Eugene.  Gut says they challenge him in Fort Wayne barring unforeseen circumstances.

Kelly is much more of a project at this point with only one real pitch in his repertoire.  The conservative play would be to start him in Arizona and promote Kelly if his performance validated, but at the moment I’ll say that he begins the year in Eugene with the Emeralds.

While 20 at bats with the AZL Padres is not a ton of experience, Hedges has at least shown that his bat isn’t completely overmatched by professional pitchers.  I’d expect to see him in Fort Wayne to start 2012 barring an underwhelming spring that would send him to Eugene. Continue reading “Padres Prospet Mailbag: August Part 2” »

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Padres Prospect Mailbag: August Part 1

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | Player Update | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (3 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 2 of the Mailbag.

Where has Edinson Rincon been? – John

Rincon was struck by a pitch on June 25 that knocked him out of action until August 25.  He is currently rehabbing with the Padres’ Arizona League affiliate and may be a candidate for the Arizona Fall League if the Padres are concerned about getting him extra at bats before re-evaluating him in Spring Training.

It is important to remember that we may not see the normal Rincon for quite some time.  The injury he suffered – a broken Hamate bone – is known to sap a batters power severely and full recovery time for their true ability to return can be 12-18 months.  Scouts and talent evaluators love the potential that Rincon brings on offense.  He has a fluid swing that is aided by his strong wrists.  Just be prepared to possibly see a lighter-hitting Rincon than in the past.

Any thoughts on what players the Padres will send to the Arizona Fall League? – Ryan

As I mentioned above, I do believe that Rincon is a strong candidate for the AFL.

Others who could potentially make an appearance:

Simon Castro – he appeared to be on the cusp of a call up heading into the season but has experienced serious regression in his secondary offerings.  With just over 100 innings pitched on the season he has more than enough bullets left in his arm this year to pitch through the winter.

Jason Hagerty – he lacks much experience against upper-level competition so the AFL would be a great challenge for him.

Cody Decker – he missed almost three months of live action.  Now that his ankle is fully healed the Padres would like to get him as much experience as possible so that his promotion path is not delayed.  Still, even with some AFL experience another year in San Antonio is not out of the question for the undersized first baseman.

Jaff Decker – he has already surpassed his career-high in games, but with his struggles in adjusting to a new stance the Peoria native may be asked to play some extra baseball over the offseason.

Like every other team the Padres will send six players, two of which can be from lower than Double-A if the team so chooses. Continue reading “Padres Prospect Mailbag: August Part 1” »

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