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Padres Prospect Mailbag: September

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (0 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Why is everybody so down on Fuentes?  He has identical numbers to last year, all be it at a higher level, when he was a key piece of the Gonzalez trade.  If he can continue to put up similar numbers in the minors and then into the Majors, he will be a prototypical player for Petco, which is what Hoyer has been looking for.  It was the kid’s first season in a new organization with a different teaching style I’m sure.  Everyone else can write this kid off, but if puts up these same numbers next year in AA I’ll be happy. – Dustin

For reference, here is Fuentes’ slash line the last two seasons:
2010 – .270/.328/.377
2011 – .275/.342/.369

The main problem here is that Fuentes went from a league that plays fairly neutral in the Sally League to the second most hitter-friendly environment in professional baseball in the California League.  The Cal League is known to inflate offensive numbers by as much as 10-15%, meaning that you really have to shave off some of Fuentes’ production to see his true performance this season.

Like I said in the August Mailbag, I still think Fuentes has the physical tools and baseball ability to be a major leaguer, but he showed inconsistent effort throughout the season leading to many question marks surrounding his game.

If Fuentes is going to bounce back in the Texas League next year – assuming he gets promoted – he is going to have to start hitting more line drives and show that he is able to make more contact in general.

I was wondering if you could give your opinion on Ross and Kelly’s high school scouting report versus Whitson’s high school report.  Specifically, where would Ross and Kelly be drafted if they were eligible for the 2010 draft? – Chris

Here are the most basic versions of scouting reports for the three pitchers:

Karsten Whitson – 3 pitches (fastball, slider and changeup) that grade out currently at solid average
Joe Ross – 2 pitches (fastball and curveball) that currently grade out at average to plus with a very under-developed changeup
Michael Kelly – 1 pitch (fastball) that grades out as solid average and a curveball that is currently a below average offering

While I think the Padres received great value with their picks this year, Ross and Kelly would both have slotted well back of Whitson if all three players were in the same draft.

If you want an overall ranking of the top high school pitchers available the last two years: (more…)

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Padres Prospet Mailbag: August Part 2

Posted by Jeff in AZL Padres | Eugene Emeralds | Fort Wayne Tin Caps | Lake Elsinore Storm | Mailbag | MLB Draft | San Antonio Missions | Tucson Padres - (4 Comments)

Some questions have been slightly edited to be shorter and more direct. If you have a question for the next Padres Prospect Mailbag, shoot us an email: mailbag@padresprospects.com

Make sure you check out Part 1 of the Mailbag.

Is Reymond Fuentes still a legit prospect? – Jonathan

Definitely.  While Fuentes’ stock has definitely slipped, he still is loaded with enough tools to be an everyday center fielder on a contending team.  It is becoming more apparent that the bat will never be anything special, but his speed definitely plays in games and – outside of this year – he has shown the ability to make consistent contact.

Unless you see a serious regression in tools, one year of production is not enough to condemn a player.  That being said, Fuentes has a lot to prove as questions surrounding his effort are growing louder and louder.

What level will Joe Ross, Michael Kelly and Austin Hedges start at next season? – Antonio

Too early to definitively say at this point.  Ross has enough stuff to compete in the Midwest League, but the Padres may elect to tinker with his delivery in the Instructional League which may have him set to begin the season in Arizona or Eugene.  Gut says they challenge him in Fort Wayne barring unforeseen circumstances.

Kelly is much more of a project at this point with only one real pitch in his repertoire.  The conservative play would be to start him in Arizona and promote Kelly if his performance validated, but at the moment I’ll say that he begins the year in Eugene with the Emeralds.

While 20 at bats with the AZL Padres is not a ton of experience, Hedges has at least shown that his bat isn’t completely overmatched by professional pitchers.  I’d expect to see him in Fort Wayne to start 2012 barring an underwhelming spring that would send him to Eugene. (more…)

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Padres Grab High-End Talent in 2011 Draft

Posted by Jeff in MLB Draft | Scouting Reports - (7 Comments)

With a flair for the dramatics and an eye on infusing high-upside talent into an improving system, the Padres managed to sign three of their top-four picks that were left unsigned heading into deadline day.  Joe Ross, Michael Kelly and Austin Hedges have been added into the fold in San Diego, representing a continued dedication towards building from within and investing more into the future of the franchise than ever before.

Joe Ross – $2.75 mil (2010 Slot – $1.125 mil)

The Padres were enamoured with Ross’ mixture of athleticism and left over projection.  Many of the top high school arms in the draft were decently polished – leading to a Major League-deal for Dylan Bundy – with Ross sitting just behind Arizona’s Archie Bradley on most draft boards looking for upside.

He was the top player left on San Diego’s board at number 25 overall, and for good reason.  Ross boasts a low-90s fastball that should sit around 93-96 once his body begins to mature.  The fastball features good arm-side run (see the videos below) and could grade out to be a 65 pitch with professional coaching.  Ross’ curveball is an advanced pitch for his age, showing great spin and control, but as his delivery is tightened up with professional coaching he’ll need to keep focused on the pitch.

Like most high school arms, Ross’ changeup is a very immature pitch at this point that lacks great feel and deception.  The pace that he moves through the organization will rely on the development of his changeup, in turn giving him an effective offering to left-handed batters.

The aforementioned delivery is still very raw.  The good news is that he has not developed the stiff front leg that currently haunts his older brother, Tyson Ross.  Joe shows enough athleticism that he should have no problem repeating his delivery with enough professional coaching to help keep his front side closed and use his lower half better.

(more…)

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