News, analysis and scouting reports of San Diego Padres Prospects
Header image

Top 25 Padres Prospects – Post Season 2011

Posted by Jeff in Scouting Reports - (12 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must be currently in the minors or temporarily filling a roster spot on the Major League club.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  Estimated Time of Arrival, ETA, for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.  If you disagree with a ranking or an evaluation that is fine.  You could ask 10 experts to submit a list of top prospects and no two would be the same.  Disparity among the evaluations is what makes them interesting!

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message.

1) Keyvius Sampson – Sampson had the most dominant season of any starting-pitching prospect in the Padres’ system.  In his age-20 season, Sampson struck out just under 11 batters per nine while allowing just 81 hits in 118 innings pitched.  The control still needs fine tuning – 3.7 BB/9 – but with the amount of production he is providing at such a young age you’ll take a rough area to his game.  ETA: Late 2013

2) Rymer Liriano – If Liriano played center field he would be considered a legit five-tool future star.  With 20/20 projections placed on his power and speed combined with a plus arm and a hit tool that grades out to at least average, Liriano provides the Padres with a right fielder of the future to dream on.  ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015

3) Robbie Erlin – A 1.38 ERA and 10.7 K/9 rate in 26 innings after joining the Padres’ organization showed what Erlin is capable of accomplishing when left alone to pitch.  He made 16 starts – and 17 appearances – in Double-A this season, but likely will be assigned to San Antonio in 2012 because of the hitting environment in Tucson.  ETA: Late 2012

4) Austin Hedges – Hedges is the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2011 draft class that cost the organization a cool $11,020,600.  While most see him as a defense-first catcher with a passable bat, Hedges has the ability to be much more than that if given the time to develop.  Catchers with an All Star ceiling don’t come around too often so expect the Padres to put a lot of time into Hedges.  ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015

5) Casey Kelly – Many are quick to judge that 2011 was a disappointing year for Kelly.  While the home/road splits are concerning, when you dive deeper you see that luck can go a long way in explaining why his box score numbers don’t look great: (BABIP – HR/FB – K/BB – FIP) Home – .269 – 7.3% – 2.25 – 3.68 Road .378 – 7.7% – 2.31 – 3.52.  ETA: 2013 Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – Post Season 2011” »

, , , , ,

Top 25 Padres Prospects – August

Posted by Jeff in Scouting Reports - (1 Comments)

This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization.  To be eligible for this list a player must be currently in the minors or temporarily filling a roster spot on the Major League club.  Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential.  Estimated Time of Arrival, ETA, for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.  If you disagree with a ranking or an evaluation that is fine.  You could ask 10 experts to submit a list of top prospects and no two would be the same.  Disparity among the evaluations is what makes them interesting!

If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message.

Updated: August 2011 – 2011 Draft Picks who had not signed by the beginning of August were not considered.

1) Robbie Erlin – Although he’s only been a Padre for a few days, Erlin has the skills and track record to thrive in San Diego much like Mat Latos has.  As evident by his 129/13 K/BB ratio in 127.1 IP in 2011 Erlin is an extreme command pitcher, but he’s still learning to control the strike zone.  While many see his ceiling as 2 or a 3, pitching half his games in Petco – and most of the rest at friendly NL West parks – should help Erlin perform as a dominant top-of-the-rotation starter in the big leagues. ETA: Late 2012

2) Casey Kelly – Kelly came over in the offseason as the big name in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.  A two-way player when drafted, Kelly is in just his second season as a fulltime pitcher.  Scouts are still waiting for the results to match the stuff, but Kelly still has all of the tools and leftover projection to be a very successful pitcher and a plus-plus defender at his position. ETA: 2013

3) Keyvius Sampson – An elite athlete, Sampson lacks the desired frame that would project him as a potential future ace.  Armed with a low to mid-90s fastball and a violent delivery, Sampson is missing bats at an impressive rate – 10.5 K/9 – and has shown consistent control over his first two full seasons.  With a 1.026 WHIP in Class A Fort Wayne, he should see a few starts in Lake Elsinore before the season’s over.  ETA: 2014

4) Joe Wieland – Wieland put himself firmly on the prospect map with his July 29th complete game no hitter against his future franchise.  While he doesn’t have quite the ceiling that Erlin does, Wieland is just as safe of a bet to be a solid 3 or 4 for the Padres for the next several years.  His strikeout rates are a bit deceptive, but Wieland has more than enough stuff than he needs with his 70-grade control.  ETA: 2012

5) Cory Spangenberg – While Spangenberg may not have the ceiling of a typical number 9 overall pick, he is a great hitter with legitimate tools.  He started off his San Diego career by dominating Short-Season ball in Eugene to the tune of .394/.545/.535, but has struggled since joining Fort Wayne.  His hitting ability is legitimate and will be the tool that carries him to the majors.  ETA: Late 2014 Continue reading “Top 25 Padres Prospects – August” »

, , ,