Top 25 Padres Prospects
This is a list of the best prospects in the Padres’ organization. To be eligible for this list a player must still posses their rookie status. Prospects are ranked both by their ultimate potential and the likelihood that they will reach that potential. The easiest way to understand the rankings is to consider what order players would be selected in if the entire organization were eligible for a draft. Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for each prospect is when they would reach the majors if they are able to reach their potential.
If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.
Updated: February 2012
1) Yasmani Grandal – In his first full season as a professional, Grandal firmly established himself as a legitimate two-way catcher. He has taken some heat for his receiving skills, but Grandal has enough athleticism and plus arm strength to at least be average defensively down the road. Combine that with a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and you’ve got the most intriguing player in a deep Padres system. ETA: Late 2012
2) Yonder Alonso – Alonso earns the nod over players with higher ceilings below him because of his mix of upside and low bust potential. With a patient approach and the ability to use all fields Alonso doesn’t quite fit the mold of the traditional first-base masher but should provide the Padres with above average production at the position for years to come. ETA: 2012 Opening Day
3) Rymer Liriano – For the first time in his career Liriano is entering a season with real expectations placed on him. At just 21 years old Liriano will start the year in Lake Elsinore with hopes that better early-season weather can help him avoid another slow start. ETA: Late 2014
4) Keyvius Sampson – While many have Sampson destined for the bullpen at some point, penciling him into that role at this juncture seems silly as he has yet to find competition that can figure out his arsenal led by a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup. He’ll need a legitimate breaking ball to get advanced lefties out, but his platoon splits from his first full season – LHB: 3.17 K/BB, 2.88 SIERA | RHB: 2.69 K/BB, 2.96 SIERA – are promising. Scouts’ concerns over Sampson’s shoulder troubles in the past have quieted substantially as his delivery has improved in his time with the Padres. ETA: Late 2013
5) Cory Spangenberg – Spangenberg may have received more offseason helium than any other prospect in baseball. Talent evaluators love to pencil guys into prototypical roles, it makes the player seem like more of a safe bet if he’s not trying to break the mold and Spangenberg fits that bill perfectly. With his well-above average speed and advanced hit tool he projects to sit atop an MLB lineup for years to come. ETA: Late 2013
6) Robbie Erlin – It seems that too often Erlin is tabbed as simply a pitchability lefty due to his lack of prototypical size and premium velocity, but that does a severe disservice to his excellent secondary offerings. His curveball and changeup grade out as plus simply through their movement and deception alone and can play above that because of Erlin’s masterful control over his entire arsenal. ETA: Late 2012
7) Joe Wieland – Almost penciled in Wieland above Erlin to be a contrarian, but had to give the ultimate advantage to Erlin simply based off of his handedness. Control has never been a problem for Wieland, but his command of the strike zone took a huge leap forward in 2011. Expect him to get the young pitcher treatment and see significant time in the San Diego bullpen before cracking the rotation on a fulltime basis in 2013. ETA: Mid 2012
8) Jedd Gyorko – While his two best tools are impressive – hit and power – at the end of the day Gyorko is a prospect with two average or better tools and little projection elsewhere. There is no reason to be down on the West Virginia product, simply aware of his limited ceiling compared to his counterparts on this list. ETA: 2013
9) Austin Hedges – Many questioned the acquisition of Grandal with a newly signed Hedges already in the system, but the fact is that you can never have enough quality catching prospects. Plus with the catching depth chart now three deep in front of him with legitimate options – Grandal, Nick Hundley and Jason Hagerty – Hedges can be brought along slowly. ETA: 2015
10) Casey Kelly – The prospect who seems to be a the center of many Padres fans’ frustrations, Kelly has yet to combine his plus raw stuff and athleticism into dominant results. To be fair, with just two years of full time experience as a pitcher under his belt Kelly is finally catching up to the development curve that was poorly planned for him. ETA: Late 2013
11) Joe Ross – This ranking may seem silly a year from now when Ross may very well top this list…but I’m not ready to be quite that bold. A full season assignment seemed unlikely late last summer when looking towards 2012, but after blowing hitters and evaluators away in Instructs it seems safe to expect Ross in Fort Wayne at some point. ETA: Late 2014
12) Jaff Decker – Decker’s time in the Arizona Fall League did little to effect his stock positively or negatively. His .289 batting average was a bit of disappointment in the skewed offensive environment but his secondary skills still impressed. Another go around in Double-A is probably best for Decker as dominating the Pacific Coast League answers few questions about a prospect’s offensive prowess. ETA: 2013
13) James Darnell – Darnell’s bat still holds a good amount of promise, but the amount of left field depth that the Padres have will limit his opportunities. Barring a few key injuries, Darnell’s opportunity may come with a different organization. ETA: Mid 2012
14) Edinson Rincon – Rincon’s bat will always be full of promise, but until he finds a defensive home he’ll remain outside the top of this list. ETA: 2014
15) Donavan Tate – Many people are expecting big things out of Tate in 2012, yet his biggest accomplishment may simply be a healthy season. When he’s on the field the tools are obvious and impressive. There’s just that pesky problem of getting him on the field. ETA: Late 2015
16) Jace Peterson – Organizational instructors have been impressed with how quickly Peterson has taken to their coaching. 2012 will mark the first year in his athletic career that Peterson has focused completely on baseball, an exciting proposition to say the least. ETA: 2014
17) Reymond Fuentes – The tools are still there and the Padres are convinced he still has All-Star level potential, but questions about his effort and focus during games still linger. ETA: Late 2014
18) Juan Oramas – Oramas is a safe bet to see time in the majors this season as the polished lefty has little maturing left to do in the minors. In 2011 Oramas got stronger as the year went on, which could point to an exciting month of September if he’s pitching in San Diego. The fact that he’s already on the 40-man roster should help his case as well. ETA: Mid 2012
19) Anthony Bass – I’m still not convinced that Bass will stick in a big league starting rotation, but on a non-contending team it would be foolish to not at least give him a shot. ETA: 2012 Opening Day
20) Jonathan Galvez – Galvez’ upside at the plate and on the basepaths is hard to ignore, but his lack of defensive progression is concerning. With Spangenberg now firmly planted above him on the organizational depth chart, Galvez needs to produce as a two-way player to earn a shot in San Diego. ETA: 2014
21) Blake Tekotte – There’s a lot to like about Tekotte’s game, but his ceiling likely resides as a fourth outfielder on a contending team – and there’s nothing wrong with that. Tekotte offers plus defense in center and should be able to handle either outfield corner with a bit more experience. ETA: 2012
22) Luis Domoromo – Domoromo may not be a name that jumps out of the box score quite yet, but if your looking for a breakout candidate in 2012 he’s an interesting bet. ETA: Late 2014
23) Duanel Jones – Jones’ approach at the plate isn’t quite as poor as his box score numbers would reflect. Unfortunately, when he faced better competition his unrefined barrel awareness was exposed. Jones is still early on the development curve so another year kicking the ball around at third and finding himself at the plate in 2012 should be expected. ETA: 2015
24) Brad Boxberger – Boxberger still has a legitimate shot of making the 25-man roster out of Spring Training, but a mid-season debut seems more likely. His three-pitch mix and superior mound presence should mean that late-inning duty is in Boxberger’s future. ETA: Mid 2012
25) Miles Mikolas – Often considered the closer of the future, Mikolas possesses a hammer curveball and mid-90s fastball that both play average to a tick above. He’ll start the year back in Double-A, but a September debut is probable. ETA: Late 2012
If you have any questions or comments about the list, send Jeff a message or post a question to the Padres Prospects Facebook Page.
Good glossing over of the best in the system. That being said it is very unlikely that Jace Peterson reaches the Bigs before Tate. Tate can play center in Petco now where as Jace is nowhere close to that level at his position. At the plate Donavan has better hands, superior bat speed, and a stronger ability to drive the ball. Peterson’s intangibles are much higher than Tate’s though and he can keep himself healthy. A sleeper prospect is Mykal Stokes. Great balance, excellent frame, and the ability to use the whole field. He isn’t putting up stats yet but this is one of those guys that may bust out seemingly out of nowhere. Keep up the good work with the site.
Hey RAP,
Thanks for the comment. While I obviously agree that Tate has the far superior tools, I think it will take him much longer to actualize his tools. As I mentioned in my explanation of Peterson, he may be a guy who out of no where is dominating Lake Elsinore next season or is struggling to get playing time in Fort Wayne. I think Peterson’s development path will be very clear in the next 12-15 months.
Given that Tate can’t stay on the field for more than 5 games at time I can’t argue with you. JP is so raw in the field though. He needs a full spring training working with quality coaches to smooth out his game at SS. If he can learn the position better and add some strength to his swing he could be a real threat.
Glad to see Yoan on this list. I’d put his name as my #1, slightly edging out Quackenbush and Keyvius.
Great job! Im really glad I stumbled onto this site!
If Cates can get the mental side of his game under control there is know telling how good he can be. This is the first year of good professional coaching he has had and was completely change in his delivery. A couple of years will take care of most of his mental needs. Kevyvius and Quackenbush both seem to have the mental side of there game and that is key to there success.
What about Parrino? Not surprising because nobody gives this kid any props. He just keeps doing his job, while others either fall apart or get hurt. Great in the clubhouse, best glove in the system at any position, and he did real well in AAA and AA last season. He’s flying by these top, waste of money picks, that the Padres don’t keep anyway. Either trade him to someone who will utilize him or let him play everyday and show what he can do. He’s a two time minor league all-star and would have been last year in AAA if someone had balls to keep him in Tuscon. Negatives, strikeouts are high, but getting better. Tell me, WHY NOT Parrino??